JAKARTA - University of Indonesia Senior Economist Fithra Faisal Hastiadi said that the projected economic growth in 2026 should be higher than in 2025.
According to him, this is because throughout 2025 there have been a number of events that have become obstacles, ranging from geopolitical tensions, the application of Trump tariffs, to disasters that befell people in Sumatra.
He added that these various disturbances put real pressure on the economy this year and in 2026, but these obstacles are expected to begin to subside and the recovery process in Sumatra is also running, so that next year's economic growth is expected to increase.
Fithra explained that based on the performance of 2025, economic growth in the first quarter was recorded at 4.87 percent, then jumped in the second quarter due to front loading activities from exporters who accelerated production activities so that the export process increased.
According to him, this could raise growth in the second quarter to 5.12 percent, although slightly decreased to 5.04 percent in the third quarter of 2025.
"But hopefully in the fourth quarter, there will be a kind of liquidity injection from (Minister of Kuangan) Pak Purbaya. It will also be able to intensify demand for credit and in the end, it can increase activity in the Ril sector as well. Now in the fourth quarter of this year, without the Sumatra disaster, it should be 5.2 percent," he said after the media briefing: optimism for Indonesia's economic growth in 2026, Thursday, December 11.
He added that due to the Sumatra disaster, there was a correction of around 0.1 percent - 0.2 percent, so that Indonesia's economic growth throughout 2025 was likely to be in the range of 5.05 percent - 5.1 percent, slightly below the government's target of 5.2 percent.
"But if that happens this will be above our economic growth on average in the last 10 years which is 5.07 percent, if 5.1 percent it happens," he explained.
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Untuk tahun 2026, lanjutnya, target pemerintah sebesar 5,4 persen masih menghadapi tantangan, termasuk efek carryover dari bencana di Sumatera.
Namun, dengan intervensi yang tepat dan cepat, dampak negatifnya dapat diminimalkan sehingga perekonomian dapat kembali normal pada 2026.
Secara keseluruhan, Fithra memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi 2026 berada di kisaran 5,1 persen hingga 5,2 persen.
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For 2026, he continued, the government's target of 5.4 percent is still facing challenges, including the carryover effect of disasters in Sumatra.
However, with the right and fast intervention, the negative impact can be minimized so that the economy can return to normal in 2026.
Overall, Fithra projects that economic growth in 2026 will be in the range of 5.1 percent to 5.2 percent.
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