Rupiah Projected Weakening Amid US Dollar Strengthening

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Friday, December 5, is estimated to have weakened to a limited US dollar.

Citing Bloomberg data, Thursday, December 4, 2025, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed down 0.15 percent to the level of Rp. 16,653 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.08 percent to a price level of IDR 16,646 per US dollar.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong said that the rupiah is expected to weaken against the stronger US dollar after the release of data on US unemployment claims that is better than expected.

He assessed that the weakening of the rupiah would be limited because investors were waiting for the release of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves data this afternoon.

"Rupiah is expected to weaken against the rebounded US dollar after US job data on unemployment claims that are better than expected. But the weakening will be limited, investors are looking forward to Indonesia's cadev data this afternoon," he told VOI, Friday, December 5.

Meanwhile, money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said a number of US economic data strengthened expectations of easing the monetary policy of The Federal Reserve.

However, he said the market still expects a 25-base-point interest rate reduction to reach nearly 90 percent at the FEd 9'10 December meeting, based on the CME FedWatch device.

He explained that ADP's employment reports showed that private sector employment was reduced by 32,000 in November, down sharply from the revised increase of 47,000 jobs in October and far below the projected positive growth.

Meanwhile, Ibrahim said the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) service index recorded a moderate expansion, although its supporting indicators indicate a slowdown.

"Investors are now waiting for a more certain signal from September's Postponed Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE), a benchmark for Fed's choice of inflation, which will be released Friday, to confirm how aggressive it is the possibility of lowering interest rates," he said in his statement, quoted Friday, December 5.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Friday, December 5 in the price range of IDR 16,650 - IDR 16,690 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, Lukman projects that the movement of the rupiah on Wednesday, December 3, will move in the range of Rp16,600 per US dollar to Rp16,700 per US dollar.