Rupiah Chances To Strengthen Amid Weakening US Dollars

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Tuesday, December 2, 2025 is predicted to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Monday, December 1, the rupiah spot exchange closed up 0.07 percent to the level of Rp. 16,663 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.04 percent at a price level of Rp. 16,668 per US dollar.

Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the US dollar started December with weakening.

According to him, this condition occurs because investors are preparing for an important period that has the potential to be the final interest rate cut moment by the Federal Reserve (The Fed) this year, as well as waiting for confirmation of a replacement for Jerome Powell, who is considered to tend to dominate.

"The main focus of investors is on the prospect of US interest rates, with the market now estimating an 87 percent chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points when meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch device," he said in a statement, quoted Tuesday, December 2.

He added that significant changes to the expectations of the Fed's policy easing as well as reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett was the strongest candidate to lead the next Fed had suppressed the dollar's value and on Friday before, the dollar even had its worst week in four months.

In addition, the market is also looking forward to the release of a number of US economic data, including the November ISM Manufacturing PMI which is predicted to fall slightly to 48.6 from 48.7 in October, followed by PMI Jasa data, Industrial Production, ADP workforce changes, and weekly unemployment claims for the period ending November.

Meanwhile, from within the country, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that Indonesia's trade balance recorded a surplus of 2.39 billion US dollars as of October 2025.

Thus, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus for 66 consecutive months since May 2020.

Exports in October 2025 were recorded at 24.24 billion US dollars, down 2.31 percent on an annual basis, mainly due to a sharp decline in oil and gas exports by 33.60 percent.

Meanwhile, imports reached 21.84 billion US dollars, down 1.15 percent from the same period the previous year.

The surplus in October 2025 was more supported by non-oil and gas commodities, amounting to US$4.31 billion with commodities contributing to the main surplus of vegetable animal fat and oil, then mineral fuel, and iron and steel.

Then, national manufacturing activities also showed an increase, namely Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI in November 2025 was at the level of 53.3, up from 51.2 in October or higher than September (50.4) but slightly below the achievement of August (51.5).

Previously, PMI was in a contraction phase for four months, from April to July 2025, with the lowest point at 46.7 in April.

According to a recent report by S&P Global, the expansion was driven by an increase in output and a new spike in orders, which became the fastest since August 2023.

Adapun peningkatan permintaan terutama berasal dari pasar domestik karena pesanan ekspor baru justru menurun cukup signifikan dan membaiknya permintaan secara keseluruhan juga memicu meningkatnya kebutuhan tenaga kerja dan aktivitas pembelian.

Ibrahim memperkirakan rupiah akan bergerak fluktuatif namun ditutup menguat pada perdagangan Selasa, 2 Desember 2025 dalam rentang harga Rp16.630 - Rp16.670 per dolar AS.

The increase in demand mainly came from the domestic market because new export orders actually decreased significantly and improving overall demand also triggered increased labor needs and purchasing activities.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,630 - IDR 16,670 per US dollar.