CORE Economists Predict That The 2021 Economic Growth Will Reach 4.5 Percent

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - Center of Reform of Economics (CORE) economist, Yusuf Rendi Manilet, estimates that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 will reach around 3.0 to 4.5 percent year on year or slower than the second quarter of 2021 at 7.07 percent.

"If you look at the fact that until September, some regions have actually dropped their PPKM (Enforcement of Community Activity Restrictions) status to a lower level, it's just that we have learned from previous experience of easing restrictions that a waiting period is needed after the restrictions are relaxed until before the economy resumes, until at least before the restrictions are put in place", Yusuf said, quoted from Antara, Wednesday, October 13.

This slowdown can be seen from several macroeconomic indicators in August 2021. Yusuf gave an example of the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) which is still at a pessimistic level, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is still at a contractionary level, and inflation is also relatively low.

However, he said, the government needs to maintain the downward trend in positive cases of COVID-19 so that more business activities can be reopened so that economic growth will also increase.

Meanwhile, according to Yusuf, economic growth throughout 2021 will also be influenced by how the government encourages economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2021, he continued, the government also needs to anticipate the third wave of the spread of COVID-19.

"I think this might happen, especially in some neighboring countries such as Singapore and also other Asian countries, such as China, which has just experienced a new wave of the spread of the new variant of COVID-19. So of course this needs to be watched out for", he added.

Moreover, new variants of COVID-19 besides Delta have also started to appear. According to Yusuf, the government needs to tighten the supervision of people entering Indonesia's international ports and airports.

"Then the government also needs to encourage greater capacity to anticipate early on from individuals affected by COVID-19, accelerate the vaccination process, and ensure law enforcement and enforcement of health protocols", he said.