China Can Be An Example When COVID-19 In The Country Is Crazy, Economist: National Lockdown!

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The number of COVID-19 cases in the country has continued to increase in the past week. Even today, the daily case penetrated 14,536.

Economists ask that the government immediately take decisive steps to carry out a lockdown like China did. The goal is to break the chain of the spread of the virus while at the same time saving the national economy.

As is known, the Chinese government decided to close access to and from Wuhan on January 23, 2020. On that date, Wuhan was quarantined. Initially people in Wuhan were still allowed to move. However, over time and the rapidly increasing number of patients, the Chinese government has tightened the rules, in which people in Wuhan are asked to stay at home.

Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Bhima Yudhistira said the Indonesian government should follow the example of China, which immediately implemented a lockdown. Although Indonesia took this option too late, said Bhima, it was much better than nothing.

"Yes, we are late to decide on a lockdown early on, but it's better late than never. The government must follow China's example in implementing a lockdown by continuing to carry out effective supervision," he told VOI, Monday, June 21.

Bhima said that if the government wanted to take decisive steps to close entry and exit access or lock down, it had to be carried out in 34 provinces within Indonesian territory. Otherwise, he said, the lockdown would not be effective.

"It's better to decide immediately, if you want to lock down nationally, one province can't decide on a lockdown, it won't be effective," he said.

During this time, said Bhima, the government also often pitted the narrative between health and economic choices. In fact, trying to relax for economic recovery, for example the premature opening of tourist attractions, is actually a blunder for the economy itself.

"The government must listen to advice from health experts. Once the lockdown is effective, the economy will grow solidly, not as false as it is now. It's as if the level of consumer confidence has increased, but after the explosion of COVID-19 cases there is a risk of falling again. We must not repeat it at zero again," he said.

Save on shopping so you can get a national lockdown

Bhima said that a large budget was needed to be able to carry out a national lockdown. According to him, these funds can be obtained from savings in the government's budget, focusing all on health spending and social protection.

"The government first stops all infrastructure spending, there needs to be an extreme reallocation during the lockdown period. Expenditures that are not urgent, such as spending on official work travel from Bali, will be canceled immediately. The estimate is that with an infrastructure budget of Rp.413 trillion that is saved, there will be a lot of support for the lockdown," " he explained.

Regarding the impact of the lockdown on the economy in the second quarter of 2021, Bhima said, the economy will grow positively. This is because it is supported by the momentum of Ramadan and Eid where THR is paid in full this year.

"But can it grow to 7 to 8 percent? I estimate it is only positive 2 percent year on year. After Eid, apart from the increase in COVID-19 cases, there are also concerns regarding the normalization of US monetary policy and the trend of tightening the government's budget, as can be seen from the tax policy plan that targets basic necessities," he said.

"As a result, people can brake again for higher spending. In the third quarter the economic outlook is at risk of contracting again, it could be negative, but the hope is that an effective lockdown will soon be carried out so that the contraction does not continue until the fourth quarter," he continued.