JAKARTA - The economist of the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, Yusuf Rendy Manilet, assessed that Indonesia's export prospects in the second semester of 2026 are still overshadowed by a number of challenges, ranging from the impact of the United States (US) tariff policy to global commodity price pressures.
Yusuf said the full impact of the US import tariff policy is expected to be felt in the second half of this year because adjusting orders from importers takes several months.
According to him, in addition to the impact of US tariffs, Indonesia also needs to anticipate the risk of shifting export orders to competing countries such as Vietnam and Mexico which are considered to have higher competitiveness in the American market.
On the other hand, the prices of a number of major export commodities such as coal and crude palm oil (CPO) are still facing cyclical pressure.
Meanwhile, industrial metal demand from China has not fully recovered because the country's economic stimulus is running slower than expected.
However, Yusuf sees that there are still supporting factors that can maintain Indonesia's export performance.
He noted that Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to China from January to May 2026 still grew 17.7 percent year-on-year, thus becoming a cushion against weakening demand in other markets.
In addition, as long as the demand for nickel derivatives products remains maintained, the opportunity for Indonesian export growth is still open.
"With this condition, I estimate that export growth in the second semester will be in the range of zero to two percent with risks that tend to go down if tariff negotiations with Washington do not result in easing," he said as quoted by ANTARA, Saturday, July 4.
Previously, Trade Minister Budi Santoso said that Indonesia's exports to the United States are currently subject to a universal tariff of 10 percent which is valid for 150 days until July 24, 2026.
The tariff is a temporary replacement for the United States' reciprocal tariff policy, which was previously canceled by the US Supreme Court.
After the expiration of the universal tariff, the US Government will set a new tariff policy that will apply to its trading partner countries, including Indonesia.
The government stated that it would continue to approach and negotiate with the US to obtain more competitive tariffs, including encouraging a number of commodities to receive a 0 percent tariff.
Meanwhile, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports in May 2026 reached US$22.45 billion or contracted by 4.5 percent compared to May 2025.
The contraction was mainly influenced by a decline in exports of precious metals and jewelry or gems, metal ores, slag and ash, and iron and steel.
Based on sectors, non-oil and gas exports are still dominated by the processing industry with a value of 19.05 billion US dollars, but experienced a contraction of 3.59 percent on an annual basis.
Meanwhile, exports of the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors fell 20.43 percent to US$500 million, while exports of the mining and other sectors fell 7.03 percent to US$2.89 billion.
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