Rupiah Potentially Weakens To Level Rp16,300 Per US Dollar

Illustration: Photo: Doc. ANTARA

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, August 20 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, August 19, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.29 percent to the level of IDR 16,246 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.48 percent to a price level of IDR 16,241 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the focus of the market was on President Donald Trump hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House, as well as being accompanied by leaders from major European countries aimed at pioneering the way for Russia's end of the war in Ukraine.

"In his public statement, Trump promised that the US would help ensure Ukraine's security as part of any peace settlement, although he did not specify the form or scope of the guarantee," he said in a statement, quoted Wednesday, August 20.

On the other hand, Trump said he had begun arranging a meeting between Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian Vladimir Putin and proposed a discussion of the next three directions, keeping hopes alive for a path to negotiations.

Additionally, European leaders in Washington are urging a ceasefire first, while Trump hints at support for European-led security guarantees for Kyiv.

Ibrahim added that the market is seeking clarity on Trump's 25 percent secondary tariff against India and the market is also concerned about an additional 25 percent US tariff imposed on India over the purchase of Russian oil, which will take effect on August 27.

"The White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro, explicitly warned that India should stop trading in Russian oil or face further consequences," he said.

He said the focus of the market this week was minutes of a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which will be released on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole franchise on Friday, both of which could provide new clues about the Fed's monetary policy prospects.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that the Government plans to withdraw new debts worth IDR 781.87 trillion in 2026, this was revealed in Book II of the Financial Note and the 2026 RAPBN.

In the RAPBN for the 2026 fiscal year, debt financing is planned at IDR 781.868 billion which will be fulfilled through the issuance of SBN and loan withdrawals.

Meanwhile, debt financing comes from SBN such as Government Securities (SUN) and State Sharia Securities (SBSN) / State Sukuk.

Meanwhile, government loans consist of domestic loans and foreign loans.

The government claims that debt management is ensured to continue to pay attention to the principle of prudence, prioritizing innovative and sustainable financing.

In the 2026 RAPBN, debt financing from SBN reached IDR 749.19 trillion, an increase compared to the 2025 outlook. Then, loan financing (neto) in 2026 is planned at IDR 32.67 trillion, down 74.9 percent compared to the 2025 outlook.

The net loan will be fulfilled through net domestic loans amounting to negative Rp6.53 trillion and net foreign loans amounting to Rp39.21 trillion.

Then today will be held the Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia which will provide an assessment of global and domestic economic conditions, including after data on economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 shocked the market with a GDP rate of 5.12 percent.

The consensus compiled by Bloomberg estimates that BI will maintain the benchmark interest rate at the current level of 5.25 percent.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading on Wednesday, August 20, 2025 in the price range of IDR 16,240 - IDR 16,300 per US dollar.