Celios: VAT So 12 Percent Will Have An Impact On E-commerce Performance

Photo: Doc. Antara

JAKARTA - The Center of Economics and Law Studies (Celios) projects that the increase in value added tax (VAT) rates to 12 percent next year will have an impact on the performance of e-commerce.

Based on the calculation of the Economic Director of Celios Nailul Huda, the performance of commercial-el in 2024 has increased by 3 percent or equivalent to Rp468.6 trillion compared to 2023 which amounted to Rp453.7 trillion.

However, by 2025, it is estimated that the performance of the commercial-el sector will only increase by 0.5 percent to Rp471 trillion.

"This situation is caused by a decrease in people's purchasing power and the potential for an increase in VAT rates which makes people hold back purchasing power," said Huda in Jakarta, quoted from Antara, Thursday, December 19.

The projection calculation uses the ARIMA model. The model is said to be effective in capturing the temporal structure of data such as to predict gross domestic product (PBD) and other economic indicators.

Another finding for Celios is that the digital payment sector will reach IDR 2,908.6 trillion by 2025, an increase of around 16.73 percent.

The online loan sector also has the opportunity to reach IDR 365.7 trillion in 2025.

For the online transportation sector (ride-hailing), its performance prediction will reach IDR 12.6 trillion by 2025.

The online transportation sector showed consistent recovery, with a gradual increase of up to Rp12.66 trillion in 2025. This increase in transaction value also continues to have the potential to open new jobs for the community and show optimism for the potential market of the digital sector," explained Huda.

Meanwhile, the online travel sector is projected to be worth IDR 12.37 trillion, an increase of 5.10 percent from 2024 which only reached IDR 11.77 trillion.

However, Celios also noted that Indonesia's digital economy sector faced three significant challenges, including decreased investment, readiness of human resources (HR), and cyber crime.