Economist Predict Trade Surplus to Rise to $2.29 Billion in August 2024

Illustration (Photo: Doc Antara)

JAKARTA - Bank Permata Chief Economist Josua Pardede said that Indonesia's trade surplus in August 2024 is estimated to increase to 2.29 billion US dollars from July's surplus of 472 million US dollars.

"The increase in the trade surplus was influenced by the increasing monthly export performance and followed by the weakening import performance," he said in his statement, Tuesday, September 17.

Josua said that export performance in August 2024 is estimated to grow 3.08 percent (mtm), driven by the increase in commodity prices, especially coal and CPO.

Meanwhile, China's total coal imports rose 3 percent in August due to China's still solid demand. In addition, the price of CPO in USD increased in August, supported by the strengthening of the MYR currency.

On an annual basis, export performance is estimated to grow by 4.20 percent (yoy), or slowing down from 6.46 percent (yoy) in July 2024, reflecting the ongoing normalization of commodity prices and the weakening global economic growth.

Josua said that Indonesia's import performance is estimated to contract by 5.07 percent (mom) in August 2024, while on an annual basis, import activity is estimated to increase by 9.30 percent (yoy), slowing down from 11.07 percent (yoy).

"The monthly contraction was mainly due to weaker performance in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the moderation in annual growth was in line with the weakening trend in global economic activity," he said.