US Inflation Data Wait Market, Rupiah Potentially Strengthens Again

Rupiah Dollar (Photo: intermediate)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Monday, September 9, 2024 is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

Financial Market and Commodity Observer Ariston Tjendra submitted that the Non-Farm Payrolls data in August released Friday night was lower than market expectations, 142,000 compared to 160,000.

"This shows that labor conditions are starting to slow down and this can support the policy of cutting the benchmark interest rate," he told VOI, Monday, September 9.

According to Ariston, the non-Farm Payrolls slowdown does not describe the deterioration in the US employment situation because the average unemployment rate and wages of workers per hour are still better than projections.

Therefore, Ariston expressed the possibility that the rupiah strengthened against the US dollar today was still open due to expectations of cutting the US benchmark interest rate.

Furthermore, Ariston said the market would look forward to the US CPI inflation indicator data which will be released this week as a new consideration for the US benchmark interest rate policy.

"If it suddenly shows an increasing number, this can dampen cuts and encourage the strengthening of the US dollar," he said.

Ariston estimates that the movement of the rupiah on Monday, September 9 has the potential to strengthen towards Rp. 15,350 with a potential resistance in the range of Rp. 15,450.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Friday, September 6, 2024, the rupiah spot exchange rate was closed up 0.15 percent to the level of Rp15,378 per US dollar. Similarly, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.24 percent to a price level of Rp15,372 per US dollar.