The Indonesian Economy In 2024 Is Estimated To Grow 5.1 Percent Driven By Domestic Consumption

Rupiah (Photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - Bank Permata economist, Josua Pardede, said that in the second semester of 2024, he would anticipate moderation in the impact of holiday-related activities compared to the first semester of 2024, most of which were caused by the reduced number of national holidays.

"With only four national holidays in the second semester of 2024, compared to thirteen national holidays in the first semester of 2024, there is the potential for lower community mobility and a decrease in recreational activities," he explained in his statement, Tuesday, August 6.

In addition, Josua estimates that the election effect is expected to decrease, because election spending in the fourth quarter of 2024 is likely to be lower than election spending.

According to Josua, support for household consumption and government spending is expected to stem from relatively low inflation, driven by the normalization of food supplies, and seasonal peaks in spending in the last quarter, in line with historical trends.

In addition, Josua sees a significant growth potential in Semester II-2024 from PMTB, mainly due to increased certainty after the election and a possible lower global policy interest rate, which could attract further investment.

According to Josua, this could lead to an increase in direct investment and capital flows, thereby strengthening private sector investment. In addition, an improving global economic environment can contribute to moderate improvement in the export performance of goods.

"For the whole of 2024, we still estimate that the Indonesian economy will grow by 5.0-5.1 percent," he said.

Josua said that Indonesia's economic growth would be supported by strong domestic consumption and various economic steps aimed at increasing domestic demand, including investment activities.