Waiting For The Fed Boss's Statement, Rupiah Potentially Strengthens

Rupiah (photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Tuesday, July 16, 2024 is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Monday, July 15, 2024, the rupiah exchange rate on the spot market closed lower by 0.21 percent at the level of Rp. 16,170 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.12 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,174 per US dollar.

Director of PT. Laba Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi said Greenback received several purchase offers after a shooting at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania, where the former President shot right in his ear.

" Analysts say the shooting increases its chances of winning over Joe Biden, a scenario that could ultimately benefit the dollar, given Trump has signaled his intention to impose a more protective trade policy," he said in a statement, quoted Monday, July 15.

Ibrahim said the dollar would also take more signs from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech this weekend.

From an internal point of view, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) noted that Indonesia's trade balance recorded a surplus in June 2024.Surplus balance of goods trading in June 2024 reached 2.39 billion US dollars, or a decrease of 0.54 billion US dollars when compared to the previous month which amounted to 2.92 billion US dollars. Indonesia's trade balance has recorded a surplus for 50 consecutive months since May 2020.

The trade balance surplus in June 2024 was supported by non-oil and gas (oil and gas) commodities of US$4.43 billion. Commodities that provide surplus donations are mineral fuels (HS 27), vegetable animal fats and oils (HS 15), iron and steel (HS 72) and several other commodities.

Meanwhile, the non-oil and gas trade balance surplus in June 2024 amounted to 4.43 billion US dollars high when compared to the previous month which amounted to 4.25 billion US dollars, as well as the same month last year which amounted to 4.41 billion US dollars.

At the same time, the trade balance of oil and gas commodities was recorded at a deficit of 2.04 billion US dollars. The commodity that contributes to the deficit comes from crude oil and oil. The deficit in the oil and gas trade balance in June 2024 was deeper than in the previous month, which amounted to 1.33 billion US dollars, and compared to the same month last year of 0.96 billion US dollars.

Furthermore, Indonesia's trade balance in June 2024 is still in surplus due to a higher export value compared to the import value. Indonesia's export value was recorded at 20.84 billion US dollars, or a decrease of 6.65 percent on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, Indonesia's import value was recorded at 18.45 billion US dollars, or a decrease of 4.89 percent when compared to the previous month.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading Tuesday, July 16, 2024, in the price range of IDR 16,130 - IDR 16,210 per US dollar.