JAKARTA - The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) reported that the realization of revenue from SOE dividend payments in the first semester of 2024 reached IDR 60.1 trillion or equivalent to 70 percent of the 2024 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) target.
The realization of BUMN dividend deposits grew by 41.8 percent compared to the same period in 2023 of IDR 42.4 trillion.
"This growth is mainly driven by the increase in deposits in dividends of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) from both the banking and non-banking sectors due to the increase in BUMN's financial performance," wrote the document on the realization of Semester I and Prognosis Semester II 2024 State Budget, quoted Friday, July 12.
To note, the increase in SOE dividend deposits is included in the Separated State Assets (KND) revenue post which contributes to non-tax state revenues (PNBP).
The positive performance of KND's Revenue in the first semester of 2024 is expected to be maintained in the second semester of 2024, especially supported by an increase in BUMN dividend deposits.
Based on this, the Prognosis of KND's Revenue in the second semester of 2024 is estimated to reach Rp25,742.2 billion or 30 percent of the 2024 State Budget. Overall, by the end of 2024, the realization of KND's Revenue is estimated at Rp85,845.5 billion or 100.0 percent of the 2024 State Budget.
In the first semester of 2024, of the five macroeconomic variables that became the basis of the macro stress test model, there was one variable that experienced an unfavorable change or exceeded the stress test carried out, namely a short-term increase in interest rates of between 180 - 200 bps. This has an impact on the potential increase in interest costs and principal loans or debt securities that can lead to a decrease in revenue for the Government from dividends and SOE taxes.
However, SOEs have taken corporate actions, including by accelerating repayment of loans or repurchasing debt securities, hedging interest rates through related financial institutions, and other related efforts to minimize these negative impacts.
Considering the projection of geopolitical conditions and the global economy, the risk of a short-term interest rate hike will still last until the end of the year.
The government and Bank Indonesia have coordinated to mitigate the risks, including maintaining the availability of liquidity for the financial institution sector.
Meanwhile, PNBP's performance in the second semester of 2024 is expected to be driven by separated State Assets (KND) revenue from BUMN dividend deposits and service revenues from several Ministries/Agencies.
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Meanwhile, natural resources (SDA) revenue will still experience challenges, especially in the Oil and Gas SDA PNBP caused by the decline in oil and gas lifting, although the ICP tends to experience an upward trend.
The Non-Oil and Gas SDA PNBP is also still under pressure, especially in the mineral and coal mining sector which is influenced by the trend of coal price moderation. However, overall by the end of 2024, PNBP is estimated to be able to exceed the 2024 State Budget target.
Meanwhile, state revenue in the 2024 State Budget is estimated to reach IDR 2,802.5 trillion and state expenditures are estimated at IDR 3,412.2 trillion.
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