IPOT Says Nickel Sentiment Will Continue This Week's Trade Week

Illustration of JCI (Between)

JAKARTA - The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose significantly to touch the level of 7,317 at the end of trading last week, Friday, May 17, 2024. JCI rose 3.22 percent or 228.44 points.

Community Lead Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) Angga Septianus explained that the JCI was supported by 2 top gainers, namely IDX BASIC, which increased by 6.55 percent and IDX FINANCE which rose 2.80 percent. Meanwhile, one top loss last week was IDX INDUST which weakened 0.67 percent.

Angga said that at least 6 sentiments influenced the JCI movement last week, namely US year on year (yoy) inflation rate, month on month (mom) production price index, American retail sales, declining US unemployment claims, nickel price sentiment and gold price sentiment.

Angga explained that the US annual inflation rate in April fell to a level of 3.4 percent in accordance with consensus and monthly dropped to a level of 0.3 percent or lower than consensus.

Furthermore, the monthly production price index increased to 0.5 percent or higher than Dow Jones' forecast at 0.3 percent and a revised decline of 0.1 percent in March.

"Regarding American retail sales sentiment, in April the reported American retail sales MoM did not change, following a down-revised increase of 0.6 percent in March and beating market expectations which is expected to increase by 0.4 percent," he said in his statement, Sunday, May 19.

Angga said that there was also a sentiment of unemployment claims in the US which fell by 10,000 to the level of 222,000 compared to the previous month, although it was still higher than the consensus at the level of 220,000.

Meanwhile, regarding nickel and gold sentiment, Angga explained that nickel is moving close to $21,000 per tonne, the highest since September 2023 due to concerns about nickel supply due to tensions in New Caledonia which contributes 5 percent to the world's nickel supply.

"The price of gold itself last week touched the level of 2,397.4 US dollars per troy ounce which is the impact of the caution of market participants in assessing the direction of the monetary policy movement that will be carried out by the Fed," explained Angga.

IPOT Sentiment And Recommendation This Week

Talking about the market prospect this week which will only last for 3 trading days, namely Monday-Wednesday, May 20-22, 2024 because there is a Vesak Day holiday and collective leave on May 23-24, 2024, Angga appealed to traders to pay attention to a number of these sentiments which are predicted to affect the movement of a number of shares.

"The sentiment that must be considered this week is from the US, namely there are initial jobless claims with consensus down from 222K to 220k, S&P Global Composite PMI which is predicted to rise from 51.3 to 51.4, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI which is predicted to increase from 50 to 50.1 and S&P Global Services PMI with consensus up from 51.3 to 51.5. Meanwhile, from within the country there is sentiment of interest rates with fixed consensus at 6.25." he explained.

According to Angga, nickel movements will continue to rise if the demonstration in New Caledonia is not completed and will certainly hamper nickel supply from the country.

It is known, New Caledonia produces about 5 percent of the global supply or the world's largest number 3 after Indonesia and the Philippines.

"Of course this condition will benefit nickel issuers such as NCKL, INCO, ANTM and HRUM," explained Angga.