Andra Soni's Surprising Victory In The Banten Pilkada Influenced By Factor X

The candidate pair for governor and deputy governor of Banten Andra Soni-Dimyati Natakusumah during the grand campaign in Tangerang. (Instagram/@ringofficialnews)

JAKARTA The victory of the Andra Soni-Achmad Dimyati Natakusumah pair is said to be the biggest surprise in the 2024 simultaneous Regional Head Election (Pilkada). The quick count results are different from the electability survey before voting day.

Shortly after voting was over on Wednesday (11/27/2024), a number of survey institutions showed the superiority of the Andra-Dimyati pair in Banten. Charta Politica, for example, noted that the candidate pair number two won 58.39 percent of the vote, beating Airin Rachmi Diany-Ade Sumardi who got 41.61 percent.

The quick calculation of Charta Politica is in line with the conclusion of the Voxpol Center which states that the pair number two won with 57.47 percent of the vote, slashing Airin-Ade's vote which was recorded at only 42.53 percent.

Indeed, quick calculations by a number of survey institutions are not the final results of the candidate pair votes for regional heads. The final results of the regional elections will still refer to the calculation of the General Election Commission (KPU) announced on December 16. But the quick count results are usually not much different from the real KPU count.

The results of the rapid calculation of the Banten Pilkada can be said to be an anomaly for many people. The reason is that Airin-Ade has high electability and popularity, even far away from Andra-Dimyati.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), for example, last September described Airin-Ade's electability as 73.7 percent of respondents' votes, while Andra-Dimyati only got 14.1 percent.

Looking at these notes, it is only natural that many are surprised by the results of the Banten Pilkada. Even the fall of Airin in kandang itself is considered the largest twist plot in the 2024 Pilkada. Most people cannot explain what happened in the Banten Pilkada so that the votes acquired by Andra Soni-Dimyati Natakusumah shot up far compared to the previous survey.

However, political observers from the University of Indonesia, Cecep Hidayat, try to explain from various sides, one of which is the academic side. According to Cecep, the public must first be able to distinguish surveys by calculating quickly. The survey conducted ahead of the election has randomness and voters can change, while the quick calculation of the parameters is data, not opinion or voter attitudes.

Cecep also mentioned that there are many variables that allow for differences between survey results and fast calculations, due to political dynamics that occur throughout the campaign period to voting day.

"After the electability survey until the voting day, of course there are dynamics in the community. So there are indeed many variables that determine this," said Cecep when contacted by VOI.

"In addition, it is also possible that the voting of the voters who finally decided their choice was one of the factors in the increase in your voice-Dimyati," he added.

In line with Cecep, Executive Director of the Indonesia Public Institute (IPI) Karyono Wibowo also said that there were several factors that caused regional head candidates to fluctuate their electability. In a dynamic political battle, the ups and downs of support will depend on the political dynamics in the field.

Andra Soni, who got a low number in electability surveys ahead of the election, is likely to carry out various programs with various instruments to increase popularity and electability, such as banners, billboards, flies, including movements in social medicine. In this case, the Andra-Dimyati team, which is supported by the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM), except for the Golkar Party, is considered to have done its job better.

"There are many factors that are the cause, including the extent to which the performance of the candidate and his team raise and attract public sympathy ahead of the election," said Karyono.

Andra Soni's results have succeeded in increasing electability and popularity. It was proven before Andra Soni's electability came up, although the quick count results were beyond predictions," said Karyono again.

But the instruments that won Andra Soni-Dimyati Natakusumah were not normal instruments, as was often done by other regional head candidate pairs. The figure of President Prabowo Subianto, who is also united with the General Chair of the Gerindra Party, has a big role in the candidate pair victory supported by him.

As is known, Prabowo officially expressed his support for the pair number two in the video uploaded to Andra Soni's Instagram account a few days before voting. Although the support was given in Prabowo's capacity as Ketum Gerindra.

"So there is Mr. Prabowo's endorsement factor. Even though Prabowo's appeal is with his capacity as party chairman, this presidential position is attached to him," explained Karyono.

"Because Prabowo's status as president, it can be translated by the apparatus, ASN, and so on as an order to win Andra Soni," he continued.

In addition, it is also possible that there will be a policy policy factor that also affects Andra Soni's victory. The influence of money politics is getting bigger, according to Karyono, one of which is caused by transactional political instruments.

"There is a factor X that also affects Airin's defeat in the Banten Pilkada. The result is indeed an anomaly," he said.

Meanwhile, Director of Indonesian Political Parameters Adi Prayitno, Andra-Dimyati's advantage is beyond the predictions of almost all survey institutions. Moreover, Banten is the home of the Golkar Party, which is also the party where Airin is anchored.

"From the formulas of political mathematics, almost no one can explain why Airin lost in Banten," said Adi.

However, according to Adi anything can happen in politics. He suspects that Andra Soni-Dimyati is accepted by the public as an antithesis against the political dynasty Airin.