More Than 50 Percent Of Adults Are Predicted To Be Obesity Risky By 2050

JAKARTA - A report warns that more than 50% of adults and a third of the world's children and adolescents will be overweight or obese by 2050.

This condition will be a major threat that has the potential to increase the number of early deaths, trigger various diseases, and put great pressure on the global health care system.

Over the past 30 years, failures in dealing with the obesity crisis have caused a drastic spike in the number of sufferers. According to an analysis published in the journal The Lancet, currently there are 2.11 billion adults aged 25 years and over as well as 493 million children and adolescents who are overweight or obese. This figure increased sharply compared to 731 million and 198 million in 1990.

Without policy reforms and concrete action, the report projects that by 2050, more than half of adults over 25 years of age (about 3.8 billion people) and a third of children and adolescents (746 million) will be overweight or obese.

One of the most worrying findings is the drastic increase in obesity in children and adolescents, which is predicted to rise by 121%. By 2050, it is estimated that 360 million children and adolescents will live with obesity.

"The endemic of obesity is a major tragedy and a monumental social failure," said Prof. Emmanuel Gakidou of the University of Washington, who led the study, quoted from The Guardian's website.

However, the obesity rate is uneven worldwide. More than half of the adult population who are overweight or obese are concentrated in eight countries, namely China (402 million), India (180 million), the United States (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million).

By 2050, about a third of children and adolescents who are obese (130 million) are expected to come from several key areas, namely North Africa, Central East Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. This condition will have a major impact on health, economy, and society in the region.

The researchers also warned that children are currently gaining weight faster than the previous generation. This early Obesity increases the risk of various serious diseases, including type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and cancer at a young age.

For example, in high-income countries, only about 7% of men born in the 1960s were obese at the age of 25. However, this figure increased to 16% in men born in the 1990s and is estimated to reach 25% for those born in 2015.

In the UK, The Lancet report predicts that the obesity rate in children aged 5 to 14 years will increase from 12% in girls in 2021 to 18.4% in 2050. Meanwhile, the obesity rate in boys in the same age range is estimated to increase from 9.9% to 15.5%.

By 2050, nearly a quarter of the adult population with obesity will be 65 years and over. This will further burden the already overwhelmed health system, especially in countries with limited resources. The second study published by the World Obesity Federation also highlights the impact of obesity in poor countries.

"This report shows that the highest number of premature deaths due to the body mass index (BMI) occurs in lower and upper middle and middle-sized income countries. This indicates that access to treatment is still very limited in these countries," said capil Ralston, CEO of the World Obesity Federation.

"Obesity has a major impact on health, economy, and society, especially in countries with limited resources." he added.

Although this study uses the best data, the researchers acknowledge there are limitations in this prediction. They do not consider the impact of new interventions, such as weight loss drugs that may develop in the future.

In related comments, Thorkild Sorensen, a researcher from Copenhagen University, emphasized that the current scale of the obesity crisis is already very large, requiring public health interventions around the world.

If there is no concrete action, the impact of obesity on health and the global economy will get worse in the future.