The Impact Of The 2024 Regional Head Election Is Predicted To Provide Positive Sentiment To The Rupiah

JAKARTA - Financial Market Observer and Commodity Ariston Tjendra conveyed that the impact of the 2024 simultaneous regional head elections (Pilkada) which took place was safe to provide positive sentiment towards the movement of the rupiah on Thursday, November 28, 2024.

"The regional elections that take place safely will certainly provide positive sentiment to the rupiah," he told VOI, Thursday, November 28.

Ariston said that the movement of the United States (US) dollar this morning moved at 106.18 or lower than yesterday which was recorded at 106.80.

According to Ariston, this decline is in line with the increasing chance of cutting the US benchmark interest rate in December according to a CME survey, which is around 70 percent higher than previously only 59 percent. This is driven by US inflation data PCE Price Index which is in accordance with expectations, which is 2.3 percent.

"With inflation that has been maintained below 2.5 percent over the past 3 months, the market still sees US inflation as down again in the future. This expectation may reduce pressure on today's rupiah," he said.

But on the other hand, President Trump's statement regarding plans to increase import rates on goods entering the US still raises concerns, causing pressure on the Asian regional market this morning. The regional exchange rate was observed to weaken against the US dollar, which could have an impact on the rupiah exchange rate.

Therefore, Ariston estimates that the movement of the rupiah on Thursday, November 28 has the potential to weaken against the US dollar towards Rp15,950 with the potential for strengthening towards Rp15,880-Rp15,900.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday, November 26, 2024, the rupiah exchange rate on the spot market closed down 0.34 percent at the level of Rp. 15,935 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.41 percent to a price level of Rp. 15,930 per US dollar.