Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji Outperform Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi in East Kalimantan Gubernatorial Election Survey

JAKARTA - The Survey Institute from the East East Research Center (TBRC) released the results of a survey that measured a map of the strength of votes by two pairs of candidates in the East Kalimantan (Kaltim) Pilkada. As a result, the Rudi Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair outperformed the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair.

"As a result, the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair are ahead with an electability rate of 47.9 percent. Meanwhile, the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair received 31.4 percent, and 20.7 percent of those who have not made the choice," said TBRC Executive Director Johanes Romeo in his statement, Monday, September 9.

It is known that the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair was promoted by PDIP, Democrats, Gelora, Hanura, the Ummat Party, and Perindo. Meanwhile, the pair Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji was promoted by the Golkar Party, Gerindra, PKB, PAN, PKS, Nasdem, PPP, PSI, PBB, Labor Party, Garuda Party, PKN, and Prima Party.

TBRC also simulated closed questions using a quasioner paper containing the names and images of the two cagub-cawagub pairs, with the question "If the Pilkada is held today, which partner do you choose?"

"The results of the tabulation of survey data show that the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair was chosen as much as 58.2 percent. Then the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair was 33.6 percent, and 8.2 percent did not choose," said Johanes.

However, Johanes continued, for the percentage of the level of popularity or acceptance of the two pairs of candidates for governor-deputy governors, the survey results show that the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair is at the highest point. It is recorded that 82.9 percent of East Kalimantan people have known the couple.

Meanwhile, the introduction rate of the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji couple was at 71.7 percent. According to Johanes, this is natural because Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi is the incumbent couple.

"However, in terms of the community's level of preference for these two couples, the survey found that the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair was liked by 79.3 percent of the people of East Kalimantan. Meanwhile, the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair was only liked by 49.1 percent," said Johanes.

Johanes said the low level of people's preference for incumbents was closely related to the level of community satisfaction with incumbent performance while leading East Kalimantan Province. TBRC's findings show that 62.7 percent of the people of East Kalimantan are dissatisfied with the performance of the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi government.

While 32.7 percent said they were satisfied, and 4.6 percent did not give an opinion. In general, said Johanes, if the level of public satisfaction with incumbent performance is low, the chance to win in the next Pilkada will be very small.

Johanes added that public dissatisfaction with the incumbent performance of Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi was also seen in the regional economic aspect. The regional economy, which still relies on the extractive sector, such as mining and quarrying, is considered to have no significant impact on reducing poverty levels.

"This is due to economic growth that is less inclusive and the non-optimal distribution and development of basic infrastructure services and economic supporting infrastructure. That is the conclusion of this survey," he concluded.

The TBRC survey was held on August 28-7 September 2024 involving 1,450 respondents with an age range of 17-70 years targeting 10 districts/cities in East Kalimantan through face-to-face interviews.

The survey method uses the sampling technique of Multistage Random Sampling. The survey with a margin of error of buh2.57 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.