Kupas Tuntas Anies Baswedan Vs Ridwan Kamil In The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election, Who Has The Opportunity To Win?

JAKARTA - The Forward Indonesia Coalition (KIM) has agreed to carry Ridwan Kamil as a candidate for governor in the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada. This agreement came after several political parties expressed their support for Anies Baswedan.

If Anies Baswedan and Ridwan Kamil will compete in the Jakarta gubernatorial election, who will have the most chance to win?

A political observer from Esa Unggul University, Jamiluddin Ritonga, assessed that KIM agreed on Ridwan Kamil because only the former governor of West Java had high popularity and electability.

While the popularity and electability of other candidates, it is still too far to match Anies.

"Therefore, KIM inevitably has to carry Ridwan Kamil forward in the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election. Because only Ridwan Kamil has the same popularity and electability as Anies. These two figures also have qualified capacity," said Jamiluddin in Jakarta, Saturday, June 15.

Therefore, he continued, KIM would choose Ridwan Kamil to run in Jakarta rather than place him in West Java. Jamiluddin assessed that KIM wanted to control Jakarta.

In addition, according to him, KIM also doesn't want Anies to have any more political access. Because it will bring KIM to the 2029 presidential election.

"So, if Ridwan Kamil runs in Jakarta, Anies will certainly have a match against him. Even though he must be admitted, Anies is a little superior because he is an incumbent," he said.

Then who won between the two figures? According to Jamiluddin, two things will be determined. First, the cawagub chosen and the political machine.

Jamiluddin assessed that Ridwan Kamil would be paired with President Jokowi's youngest son as well as PSI General Chair Kaesang Pangarep.

"Although Kaesang does not have adequate electability, behind him has political and economic power. Including of course the support of Joko Widodo volunteers and KIM party machines," he said.

To match that, Jamiluddin added, Anies needs to be accompanied by a representative who can boost his electability. However, Anies should ideally be given the flexibility to choose his representative.

"Only then, Anies did not repeat his mistake when he received a representative who was unable to boost his electability in the 2024 presidential election. As a result, Anies' electability struggled under Prabowo Subianto," said Jamiluddin.

"So, Anies should ideally give Anies the flexibility to choose his representative. Only in that way, representatives who can boost Anies' electability can be obtained," he added.

Later, according to Jamiluddin, Anies only needs to be supported by parties that have militant political machines. In Jakarta, PDIP and PKS are considered to have good political machines when viewed from the results of the 2024 Legislative Election.

"If this can be fulfilled by Anies, of course the chances of winning are still open. On the other hand, if Anies is dictated by the party that carries him in determining his representative, then Anies will have the opportunity to be defeated by Ridwan Kamil," he concluded.