ARCI Survey: PKB And Gerindra Electability Potentially Overtakes PDIP In East Java

SURABAYA - The Indonesian Accurate Research and Consulting (ARCI) survey institute released an electability survey of political parties in East Java for the 2024 General Election (Pemilu) with the results of the National Awakening Party (PKB) and Gerindra competing fiercely as well as potentially overtaking the PDI-P.

In the latest survey, PKB's electability took second place with 15.2 percent and Gerindra in third place with 15.1 percent. Meanwhile, the PDI-P became the top with a percentage of 17.8 percent.

"So PKB, Gerindra has a chance to overtake the PDI-P. The electability of the PDI-P is different under the margin of error," said ARCI Director Baihaki Sirajt as quoted by ANTARA, Thursday, November 2.

The portrait of electability, said Baihaki, is influenced by the wind of support from President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), which he said tends to lead to potential pairs outside the PDI-P.

"The electability of the PDI-P tends to decline after the heated relationship with Jokowi, because it must be understood that East Java is Jokowi's basis for two presidential elections (Pilpres) and now Jokowi's signal to prospective pairs of candidates who are not promoted by the PDI-P," he said.

Although PKB and Gerindra have the potential to overtake the PDI-P, the position of the two parties is also not safe, because there is still Golkar in fourth place with 14.1 percent electability with the potential to enter the top three.

Golkar's condition could not be separated from the move by the party led by Airlangga Hartarto to declare Gibran Rakabuming Raka as a candidate for vice president, thus having an electoral abundance.

"Golkar has a chance to get a coattail effect from Gibran, where Jokowi loyalists in East Java can turn from the beginning of the PDI-P then to Golkar because there is a Gibran factor. If Gerindra clearly gets an electoral abundance from Prabowo Subianto," he said.

It is known, the ARCI Survey was conducted from October 22 to October 27, 2023, using the multistage random sampling method which took a sample of 1,200 respondents spread proportionally in 38 districts/cities throughout East Java.

The ARCI survey has a margin of error of 2.8 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.

The following are the results of a survey on the electability of political parties in East Java from ARCI:

1. PDI Perjuangan 17.8 percent.

2. PKB 15.2 percent.

3. Gerindra 15.1 percent.

4. Golkar 14.1 percent.

5. Democrats 10.1 percent.

6. NasDem 5.9 percent.

7. PKS 5.2 percent.

8. PAN 4.5 percent.

9. PPP 4.1 percent.

10. PSI 1.8 percent.

11. Perindo 1.4 percent.

12. Hanura 0.5 percent.

13. PKN 0.5 percent.

14. UN 0.2 percent.

15. Gelora 0.1 percent.

16. Ummah 0.1 percent.

17. Garuda 0 percent.

18. Labor party 0 percent.

Don't know/don't answer 3.1 percent.