UK Intelligence Chief Sees Russia Values Will Run Out Of 'Power' And Cease Military Operations In The Next Weeks: Chance For Ukrainian To Counterattack

JAKARTA - Britain's intelligence chief said Russia might pause fighting in Ukraine in the coming weeks, giving Kyiv an opportunity to counterattack.

Richard Moore, head of the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) known as MI6, also estimates about 15.000 Russian troops have died so far in its war in Ukraine, adding that "may be a conservative estimate."

"I think they're going to run out of steam," said Moore, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, adding that the Russian military would find it increasingly difficult to supply manpower and materials over the next few weeks, cited from Reuters, July 22.

"They have to stop in some way, and that will give Ukraine a chance to strike back."

Nearly five months since Russia invaded Ukraine, Kyiv hopes Western weapons, especially long-range missiles such as the US HIMARS which Kyiv has deployed in recent weeks, will allow it to launch a counterattack in the coming weeks and retake Russian-occupied territory.

Moore underlined the need for Ukraine to demonstrate that the war can be won, both to keep Ukraine's morale high but also to strengthen Western resolve as concerns rise about Europe's energy shortages over the coming winter.

"It's very important, I think, for the Ukrainians themselves that they show their ability to strike back. And I think it will be very important to continue their high morale," said Moore.

"I also think, to be honest, this will be an important reminder to all of Europe, this is a campaign that Ukraine can win. Because we're going into a pretty tough winter and I don't want it to sound like a character from 'Game of Thrones.' But winter is coming."

"And obviously in that atmosphere with some kind of pressure on gas supplies and whatnot, we're in a really tough time," Moore said.

The prospect of Russia's disruption of European energy supplies is one of the greatest global economic and political risks arising from the war. European countries fear they could face shortages next winter if Russia reduces shipments during the warmer months when they usually fill storage tanks.

Moore further said that the toll from Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine was felt mainly in poorer rural communities, and that Putin had not recruited troops for the conflict from the middle-class St. Petersburg or Moscow.

“These are poor children from rural parts of Russia. They are from blue-collar cities in Siberia. They are disproportionately from ethnic minorities. And this is cannon fodder,” explains Moore.

Asked if he knew about Putin's health, Moore said: "There is no evidence that Putin has a serious illness."