LSN Survey: Prabowo's Electability Soars Above Ganjar And Anies

Minister of Human Rights Prabowo Subianto and Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo. (Instagram Prabowo-doc Central Java Provincial Government)

JAKARTA - The National Survey Institute (LSN) revealed that Prabowo Subianto's electability in the survey he conducted managed to outperform Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.

"Thus, Prabowo remains at the peak of electability, even showing a growing trend," said Executive Director of LSN Gema Nusantara Bakry in Jakarta, Thursday, May 4, confiscated by Antara. The following are the results of a survey related to the electability of a presidential candidate (candidate) if the presidential election is currently held: Prabowo Subianto 31.8 percent, Ganjar Pranowo 18.6 percent, Anies Baswedan 18.2 percent, Ridwan Kamil 6.5 percent, Erick Thohir 4.2 percent, and Sandiaga Uno 2.8 percent.

The names of other candidates, Mahfud MD 2.5 percent, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) 2.4 percent, Muhaimin Iskandar 2.3 percent, Puan Maharani 2.1 percent, Airlangga Hartarto 1.8 percent and did not know 6.8 percent. From the results of the survey, there were only 18.6 percent of the three figures who had the top electability, namely Prabowo Subianto 31.8 percent of respondents, Ganjar Pranowo 18.6 percent and Anies Baswedan 18.2 percent of respondents. The electability of Ganjar Pranowo was only around 18.6 percent, because he was perceived by the public as the cause of Indonesia's cancellation as the host of the U-20 World Cup.

"The position of Ganjar is even threatened with being evicted by Anies Baswedan, who has 18.2 percent electability. The PDI-P support does not necessarily boost Ganjar Pranowo's electability," said Gema. In addition, respondents were also asked a simulation of the 2024 presidential candidate if only three presidential candidates were followed, namely Prabowo, Ganjar, Anies. The question is, "If only the 2024 election was followed by three presidential candidates below who would you choose?" Then, as many as 13.1 percent of respondents stated that they did not know or did not answer the LSN question. Furthermore, respondents were also asked 'if the 2024 presidential election was only followed by two presidential candidates, namely Ganjar Pranowo Vs Prabowo Subianto, who would you choose?'. The results of the LSN survey show that Prabowo Subianto will be the winner if the presidential election is only followed by two candidates. "As many as 51.6 percent of respondents claim to vote Prabowo if the presidential election is currently held and only followed by two presidential candidates," he said.

Ganjar Pranowo was chosen by 38.5 percent of respondents aka left very significantly behind Prabowo Subianto's electability. Around 9.9 percent admitted that they could not choose one of the two figures. Then, respondents were asked another question 'if the 2024 election was only followed by two presidential candidates, namely Prabowo Subianto Vs Anies Baswedan, who would you choose?'. The results of the LSN survey show that Prabowo Subianto will still come out as the winner if the presidential election only two candidates participated. As many as 56.4 percent of respondents admitted that they would vote for Prabowo if the presidential election was held at this time and only followed by two presidential candidates. Anies Baswedan was chosen by 37.2 percent of respondents alias far behind Prabowo Subianto's electability. There is also 6.4 percent of respondents have not been able to choose one of the two figures. The response was also asked which reads "If the 2024 election was only attended by two presidential candidates, namely Ganjar Pranowo Vs Anies Baswedan, Who will you choose?". If the presidential election is only followed by two candidates, it is difficult to predict who will be the winner. The electability difference of the two presidential candidates is very thin. As many as 40.2 percent of respondents admitted that they would choose Ganjar Pranowo if the presidential election was held at this time and only two presidential candidates participated. Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan was chosen by 39.6 percent of respondents alias only 0.6 percent so that the methodology of the two positions could be reversed. As many as 20.2 percent admitted that they could not choose to be wrong one of the two figures. On the other hand, the LSN survey also raises questions regarding which national figure will most likely get support or endorsement from President Jokowi to become a 2024 Presidential Candidate? The result is 43.6 percent of respondents believe that President Jokowi will eventually impose his support or endorsement to Prabowo Subianto to become President of the Republic of Indonesia in 2024-2029. Then as many as 32.3 percent of respondents expressed confidence that the endorsement of the President Jokowi will be given to Ganjar Pranowo who has been promoted by the PDI-P. Meanwhile, other figures who in public perceptions may also receive support from President Jokowi are Erick Thohir 8.5 percent, Mahfud MD 5.2 percent and Airlangga Hartarto 1.2 percent. The survey was conducted from April 25 to May 2, 2023 in 34 provinces throughout Indonesia. The population of the survey is an Indonesian citizen who is 17 years old and has an ID card. In this survey, there is a survey 1,230 respondents, obtained through a systematic random sampling technique, margin of error +/- 2.8 percent and at a 95 percent confidence level. Data collection methods are carried out using telephone interview techniques. Based on the schedule set by the General Election Commission (KPU) of the Republic of Indonesia, the registration of prospective presidential and vice presidential candidates is scheduled to start from October 19 to November 25, 2023.

As regulated in Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections (UU Pemilu), pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates are proposed by political parties or coalitions of political parties participating in the election who meet the requirements for obtaining seats of at least 20 percent of the total number of seats in the DPR or obtaining 25 percent of valid votes nationally in the previous election for members of the DPR.

Currently, there are 575 seats in parliament so that pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election must have at least 115 seats in the DPR RI. In addition, candidate pairs can also be promoted by political parties or a combination of political parties participating in the 2019 Election with a total valid vote acquisition of at least 34,992,703 votes.