Without Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Prabowo Subianto Is Not Confident Enough To Face The 2024 Presidential Election

A billboard depicting the General Chair of the Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto and the Mayor of Solo Gibran Rakabuming Raka on Pemuda Street, Medan City, North Sumatra, Sunday (15/10/2023).

JAKARTA – Gibran Rakabuming Raka, a name that has caught the attention of Indonesian people in the last few months. Gibran's name has been increasingly highlighted since Monday (16/10/2023).

That day, the Constitutional Court decided to grant the material review of Article 169 letter q of the Election Law regarding the minimum age limit for presidential candidates (Capres) and vice presidential candidates (Cawapres) proposed by a student named Almas Tsaqibbirru Re A. The case was submitted to the Constitutional Court under number 90/ PUU-XXI/2023.

The Constitutional Court stated that Article 169 letter q of the Election Law which states "at least 40 years of age" is contrary to the 1945 Constitution and has no binding legal force.

"So that article 169 letter q in full reads 'be at least 40 years old or have/are currently holding positions elected through general elections including regional head elections'," said Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court Anwar Usman at the decision reading session at the Constitutional Court Building in Jakarta.

Prospective presidential candidate promoted by the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) Prabowo Subianto gave a statement to the media crew after celebrating his 72nd birthday at Kertanegara House, Jakarta, Tuesday (17/10/2023) evening. (Antara/Fath Putra Mulya)

Political expert from Al Azhar University Indonesia, Andriadi Achmad, said that the Constitutional Court's decision was actually good for accommodating young people. But unfortunately, this decision was made at the wrong moment.

So this further strengthens the public's suspicion that this was created as an opening for Gibran to run in the presidential election contest.

"Actually, the Constitutional Court's decision would not be a problem if it did not occur during the presidential election season. "In this way, it further strengthens people's suspicions that this decision was made to accommodate Gibran," said Andriadi to VOI.

"Only the momentum is not right, because it coincides with the 2024 presidential election. If this decision is made after the presidential election, then this will be a good decision because it accommodates young people to come forward," said Andriadi again.

Gibran's Electability Is Low

Apart from Gibran, observers said that the person who smiled the most after hearing this decision was Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo's dream of appointing Jokowi's eldest son as his vice presidential candidate in the 2024 presidential election is getting closer to reality.

The chairman of the Gerindra Party did not clearly state that he wanted to propose to Gibran. But from the codes shown by Prabowo and his supporters, as well as the massive approach taken, it shows that the Minister of Defense is desperate to have a duet with the president's son in next year's presidential election.

Looking at the electability of a number of survey institutions, Gibran is actually still inferior compared to other names that are also associated with Prabowo. In May 2023, a Populi Center survey said Gibran's electability was only 3.8%. This figure is far below Ridwan Kamil's 19.3% and Sandiaga Uno's 16.5%.

Gibran lost again to Erik Thohir and Mahfud MD in East Java. The electability of this 36 year old man is at 6.1%.

Executive Director of the Indonesian Public Institute (IPI), Karyono Wibowo, revealed that Prabowo wanted to take advantage of Gibran's status as the son of Jokowi, who is in fact the current president.

A number of volunteers unfurl posters while taking part in the event and declaration of Central Java Move for Gibran 2024 at Jatidiri GOR, Semarang, Central Java, Tuesday (17/10/2023). (Antara/Arti Zaezar/Spt)

“Why is Prabowo desperate to partner with Gibran? This is part of the strategy. To win the presidential election, Prabowo wants to increase support from outside his electorate. In the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections, Prabowo lost in Central Java and East Java. "With the Gibran-Prabowo duet, it is hoped that we can add votes," said Karyono when contacted by VOI.

“Apart from that, what Prabowo wants to capitalize on is his father Gibran. Until now, Jokowi still serves as president, the holder of the highest power. "This instrument of power could be used by Prabowo," added Karyono.

Not only that, Prabowo is also considered to have done the calculations if the 2024 presidential election will last two rounds.

"Apart from that, they are also calculating that if, for example, in the next two rounds Prabowo runs against Ganjar, Anies' voters will be transferred to Prabowo," said Karyono.

Prabowo Is Not Confident

The three defeats experienced by Prabowo Subianto in the presidential election contest are also said to be one of the reasons this man who was born on October 17 1951 wants to propose to Gibran as his vice presidential candidate.

As is known, Prabowo has previously run for presidential elections three times, but he lost three times. The first defeat occurred in 2009, when he ran as Vice Presidential Candidate for Megawati Soekarnoputri. At that time, the pair who got the slogan 'Mega-Pro' then lost to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Prabowo tried his luck again as a presidential candidate in the 2014 presidential election. He appointed Hatta Rajasa as his vice presidential candidate. However, despite receiving strong support, the Prabowo-Hatta duo lost to Joko Widodo who was paired with Jusuf Kalla.

Prabowo fulfilled his three consecutive failures in the 2019 presidential election when he was paired with Sandiaga Uno. However, he lost to the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin pair.

The administrators of the Central Java Greater Indonesia Volunteer Unit (Satria), the organizational wing of the Gerindra Party, declared their support for the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair as Presidential Candidate and Vice Presidential Candidate in the 2024 presidential election, in Semarang, Wednesday (11/10/2023). (Antara/Zuhdiar Laeis)

According to the political expert and founder of the Kedai KOPI survey institute, Hendri Satrio, paired with Jokowi's son, is believed to be making Prabowo's name even though Gibran's electability is not very good.

“Yes, because Gibran is the son of the president, the current ruler. That could increase Prabowo's breakthrough power. "Prabowo really wants to win after often losing in the previous elections," said Hendri in his message to VOI.

Contacted separately, Pangi Syarwi Chaniago said that Prabowo's level of confidence increased if he was with Gibran. Prabowo feels that support from the current rulers can further his ambitions to become the next ruler.

“Prabowo's confidence level will not increase if he is not with Gibran. Being paired to the president's child is everyone's dream. Who doesn't want to be paired with the president's child? There is pride in being able to be paired with the president's son, especially since Jokowi was still president on the election date," said Pangi, Executive Director of the Voxpol Center Research and Consulting.

"The only reason Prabowo likes Gibran is because he is Jokowi's son. That's it. It will be easier to win if you partner with the president's son. If his child is in Prabowo's hands, it's impossible for Jokowi not to support Prabowo, right? The issue of electability could change later," he concluded.