Ipsos Public Affairs Research Institute: Will Cawapres Determine Victory

Erick Thohir. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The international research institute Ipsos Public Affairs held a telesurvey to photograph developments and dynamics ahead of the 2024 democratic event. The telesurvey was held on July 7 -12 2023 against 2,191 respondents aged over 17 years spread across rural and urban areas throughout Indonesia.

"The survey involved 2,191 respondents with a margin of error of 2.1 percent and spread evenly in 34 provinces in Indonesia to photograph the dynamics and development of potential figures who will run in the presidential election," said Ipsos Public Affairs Senior Researcher in his presentation in Jakarta, Tuesday 18 July.

The results of this telesurvey, he continued, for figures who have the potential to run in the presidential election there is no significant shift. Only three names appeared, namely Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.

"Prabowo got 36.65 percent, Ganjar 34.46 percent, and Anies 25.60 percent. However, Prabowo's advantage is a slight difference with Ganjar who is still within the margin of error limit," he said.

Although Prabowo is superior, continued Arif, he is only slightly adrift of Ganjar so that the position of the vice president will determine who will be the winner in the presidential election.

"With the dynamics of the electability of such a presidential candidate, the accuracy of choosing a vice presidential candidate will be a key factor in winning," said Arif.

Meanwhile, Managing Director of Ipsos Indonesia Soeprapto Tan, for potential candidates for vice president, has narrowed to five names.

"The five names are Erick Thohir, Ridwan Kamil, Sandiaga Uno, Mahfud MD and Agus H. Yudhoyono. Erick Thohir won 25.74 percent, Ridwan Kamil 19.08 percent, Sandiaga Uno 17.80 percent, Mahfud MD 7.71 percent and AHY 6.85 percent," he explained.

Meanwhile, said Soeprapto, public perceptions see the Prabowo - Erick candidate pairing score as the lowest public resistance with a score of 100 percent. While Ganjar-Erick got a score of 97 percent, and Anies - Erick 81 percent.

"Skor Prabowo-Ridwan Kamil 86 persen, Ganjar-Ridwan Kamil 91 persen, Anies-Ridwan Kamil 78 persen. Meanwhile, if Prabowo-Sandi is 94 persen, Ganjar -Sandi 89 persen, Anies -Sandi 83 persen," he said.

Thus, Erick Thohir is the prospective vice presidential candidate who has the lowest level of public resistance in the two candidates for Prabowo and Ganjar. Meanwhile, Sandiaga Uno has the lowest resistance if he is paired with candidate for presidential candidate Anies Baswedan. And Ridwan Kamil has the lowest resistance if he is paired with Ganjar Pranowo.

In the standard methodology, he continued, Ipsos Public Affairs conducts studies in accordance with applicable scientific and statistical methods. Because, he continued, Ipsos, apart from being a member of the Indonesian Public Opinion Survey Association (Persepi), is also a member of the Association for Global Research Agency Worldwide (ESOMAR), an international research association that conducts periodic audits of its members.

To note, Ipsos Public Affairs is part of Ipsos, an international research institute that is very experienced in the global world. The institution, which is headquartered in Prarancis, operates in 90 countries, in addition to being known to conduct market research, Ipsos has also conducted socio-political research, including in Indonesia since 2008.