JCI Last Week Was Under Pressure, What About This Week?

JAKARTA - The stock market on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the past week has weakened 0.18 percent due to various pressures. So, what about this week's JCI?

According to Chisty Maryani, Ajaib Sekuritas Financial Expert, the movement of the JCI this week will still be overshadowed by corporate actions in the form of reporting on the issuer's financial performance, fluctuations in commodity prices, as well as the release of several domestic and foreign economic data.

For foreign economic data, the market is still waiting for the release of United States (US) unemployment data which will be released at the weekend when the domestic market is actually closed for a holiday. The US unemployment rate in March is projected to be at 3.5 percent, lower than February 2023 at 3.6 percent.

"This increases market expectations that the Fed will hold off on raising its benchmark interest rate at the next meeting in May, so that should be a fairly positive catalyst," Chisty said in a written statement, quoted Monday, April 10.

Even so, Chisty predicts that the JCI will tend to go sideways next week. Technically, as long as the JCI is still strong and maintains support at the MA20 at the level of 6,745, it is believed that the JCI will continue its consolidation trend.

As for the past week, the JCI has been very volatile. At the beginning of the week, domestic market players were optimistic following the rising prices of several commodities such as coal, CPO, nickel, and crude oil which boosted energy stocks.

"Apart from that, expectations for the distribution of jumbo dividends from coal issuers, as well as the provision of 1% VAT incentives for four-wheeled electric vehicles and buses officially provided by the government are positive catalysts," explained Chisty.

However, throughout last week, the JCI actually tended to be under pressure where the technology sector received a severe blow, dropping 2.91 percent. The correction in the growth stock-based sectoral index was partly due to external pressure, namely the potential for a weakening US economy this year after the release of US labor market data.

The Job Opening Report (JOLTS) for the February 2023 period only recorded 9.93 million new jobs open. This number decreased by 632 thousand compared to January 2023.

In addition, service activity in the US based on ISM Services data has also been released, a decline to a level of 51.2 in March 2023 from 55.1 in the period February 2023. Market players are also worried about depreciating demand at the global level, in line with the potential for a slowdown economy globally.

"Market players tend to transfer ownership of risky assets from growth stocks to stocks that tend to be defensive," said Chisty.