Gadjah Mada University Expert Predicts COVID-19 Will Become Seasonal Flu

JAKARTA - Epidemiologist from Gadjah Mada University (UGM), Riris Andono Ahmad predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic will become a seasonal flu outbreak in the future.

"The pandemic will last long enough so that the fatality of COVID-19 will decrease and it will become seasonal flu. This is similar to the Spanish flu, which is actually still circulating", Riris said, quoted from the ugm.ac.id page on Wednesday, July 21.

The government is targeting communal immunity (herd immunity) in the COVID-19 vaccination program with at least 70 percent of its citizens having been vaccinated. Riris thinks that herd immunity will be formed if the vaccine target is still within the duration of immunity.

The target is that herd immunity will be achieved if 181.5 million people are vaccinated. Unfortunately, currently, only around 42 million people have been vaccinated against COVID-19.

"Based on the research that has been done, natural immunity from COVID-19 is relatively short. Looking at the current condition of Indonesia, it is quite difficult to achieve herd immunity", he said.

That's why Riris thinks herd immunity from vaccination is difficult and COVID-19 will become endemic. Moreover, the efficacy or efficacy of the Sinovac vaccine, which is the most widely used by the Indonesian people, is 65 percent.

"With Sinovac's efficacy of 65 percent and the target population receiving the vaccine is 188 million people, the actual number of immunity obtained is 122.2 million people. This figure is not enough to achieve herd immunity", said Riris.

Therefore, he emphasized that COVID-19 handling strategies such as 3M, 3T, mobility restrictions, and vaccinations must continue to be encouraged.

“The 3M, 3T strategies, reducing mobility, and vaccinations must continue so that the number of COVID-19 cases can be controlled. This step must be carried out in harmony with both the government and the community. We hope that the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia can be controlled", he concluded.