指標調査:DKIジャカルタでプラボウォの選挙可能性の傾向が上昇

JAKARTA - Executive Director of Indonesian Political Indicators Burhanuddin Muhtadi said that Prabowo Subianto's electability trend as a presidential candidate (candidate) among DKI Jakarta voters has increased.

From the findings of the Indicator survey from February to March 2023, Prabowo's electability was 16.6 percent. This increase was increased compared to the previous survey in July 2022 which only reached 11.9 percent.

"The good news is that even though he is left behind in third place, Pak Prabowo has an upward trend compared to July 2022," said Burhanuddin when delivering the survey results reported by ANTARA, Thursday, May 11.

Burhanudin said that Prabowo only has a positive electability trend when compared to Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo. The reason is, Anies and Ganjar's electability has decreased from the previous survey.

According to the results of the Indicator survey in July 2022, Anies Baswedan's electability was at 45.9 percent. This figure fell to 42.4 percent in the Indicator survey in February-March 2023.

The same thing also happened for Ganjar Pranowo's electability. In the July 2022 Indicator survey, Ganjar's electability was 34.3 percent, while in the February-March 2023 survey Ganjar's electability was 33.2 percent.

"Although again they have not been able to shake the dominance in DKI Jakarta, the two top names. But at least, from these three names, only Pak Prabowo has a positive trend. Even though the difference is far from the two names above," said Burhanuddin.

According to Burhanuddin, Prabowo's rising electability trend occurred because the Minister of Defense began to intensify his political actions as a candidate for president at the beginning of this year.

"Maybe (because) Pak Prabowo just started moving around early 2023, yes. Well, this is starting to have an impact," he said.

Meanwhile, continued Burhanuddin, the electability trend of prospective presidential candidates in DKI Jakarta in the last four surveys indicators was dominated by Anies Baswedan. Followed by Ganjar Pranowo in second place and Prabowo Subianto in third.

The following are the results of the last four surveys by Indicators regarding the prospective presidential candidate among DKI Jakarta voters.

September 2021 Survey

Anies Baswedan: 37 percent

Ganjar Pranowo: 29.2 percent

Prabowo Subianto: 20.4 percent

April 2022 Survey

Anies Baswedan: 41.4 percent

Ganjar Pranowo: 31.3 percent

Prabowo Subianto: 17.5 percent

July 2022 Survey

Anies Baswedan: 45.9 percent

Ganjar Pranowo: 34.3 percent

Prabowo Subianto: 11.9 percent

February-March 2023 Survey

Anies Baswedan: 42.4 percent

Ganjar Pranowo: 33.2 percent

Prabowo Subianto: 16.6 percent

The population of Indonesian Political Indicators surveys is all Indonesian citizens in DKI Jakarta who have the right to vote. The sampling was carried out using the multistage random sampling method with a total sample analyzed by 2060 respondents.

Assuming a random sampling methodimum, the base sample size of 820 respondents had a margin of error of approximately 3.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

The selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by interviewers who had been trained.Quality control of the interview results was conducted randomly by 20 percent of the total sample by supervisors with checkpoints, and no significant errors were found.