Political Stability Or Check And Balances?

Photo Illustration By Andry WInarko VOI

JAKARTA After the determination of Prabowo-Gibran, the public's attention turned to steps taken by the Amin and Ganjar-Mahfud duo. On March 21, the AMIN pair officially registered a lawsuit against the 2024 Presidential and Vice Presidential Election Results Dispute (PHPU) case to the Constitutional Court. Their lawsuit is registered with the number: 01-01/AP3-Pres/Pan.MK/03/2024.

A few hours before the closing of dispute registration at the Constitutional Court, Saturday, March 23, it was the turn of the Ganjar-Mahfud National Winning Team (TPN) to register a lawsuit against the results of the 2024 presidential election with number 02-03/AP3-Pres/Pan.MK/03/2024.

However, it is not Indonesian politics if there is no 'drama'. Last Friday, March 22, the Indonesian public was shocked by the meeting between Prabowo and the General Chair of the NasDem Party, Surya Paloh. How not to mention the surprise, the meeting of the two figures took place just one day after the AMIN pair, which incidentally was also promoted by NasDem, filed a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court.

The meeting of Prabowo and Paloh suddenly again raises the assumption that NasDem will move closer to the Advanced Indonesia Coalition in the upcoming government. Moreover, Prabowo also stated that so far he has always offered NasDem to move closer to the Advanced Indonesia Coalition and cooperate in politics.

Surya Paloh himself gave a diplomatic answer regarding Prabowo's invitation. He only said to see future developments. Therefore, the possibility of NasDem getting closer to KIM is still 50 percent. That's what we see in the future. The possibility is still a fifty-fifty," said Paloh.

Apart from NasDem, the issuer of AMIN in the 2024 presidential election, namely PKB, is also said to have begun to be 'tempted' to join the upcoming government. In a meeting between President Joko Widodo and two ministers from PKB, Abdul Halim Iskandar (Mendes PDT) and Ida Fauziyah (Menaker) at the State Palace, Monday, March 18, Jokowi greeted Cak Imin.

However, the two PKB elites did not take Jokowi's greeting seriously for Cak Imin. Because, personally Jokowi and Cak Imin have been known to be familiar. "It's a joke from President Jokowi because we've been close, right," said PKB DPP chairman Daniel Johan.

Deputy Secretary General of PKB, Syaiful Huda also dismissed the perception that Jokowi's greeting to Cak Imin was a form of temptation to join KIM. "If the context is teasing, I don't think so, because we are still trying (to roll out) the right of inquiry," he said.

Prabowo's need to add coalition members in his government is quite urgent. From the results of the KPU's determination, KIM only won a total of 43.18 percent of the votes. Meanwhile, the combination of the coalition supporting AMIN and Ganjar Mahfud reached 46.42 percent of the votes (minus PPP which did not pass to parliament). Therefore, many people suspect that the upcoming Prabowo government still needs additional strength in parliament in order to dominate parliament.

According to LSI researcher Denny JA, Ardian Sopa, the Prabowo government needs stable coalition support so that their strategic programs can be implemented properly. He assessed that a semi-permanent coalition of parties for 20 years is very important to maintain stability in implementing large programs such as relocation of the capital city, industrial development, digitization, and free lunch programs.

"That's why Prabowo-Gibran needs additional support because the parties that are members of KIM do not have the majority of seats in the DPR," he said.

BRIN political researcher Wasisto Raharjo argues that if a political party outside KIM is tempted to enter the Prabowo government, it will reduce the opposition space in the upcoming government. Although, he can understand that taking a position as an opposition in Indonesia is an option between idealism and a dilemma for political parties.

"There are several parties that are strong ideologically and party platforms, so there is no problem with the opposition, for a healthy democracy," he said.

Opposition How To Attract Political Offering Positions

There are also parties that see the opposition as a dilemma because they actually still want to enter the government. "But they never got an invitation, so being in opposition is part of how to attract political bargaining positions," added Wasisto.

He reminded that if Prabowo formed a grand coalition, he would also be vulnerable to the emergence of friction among fellow members of political parties. In particular, between big and medium parties. Regardless of all, both Ardian and Wasisto consider that the president who is supported by the majority of political parties in parliament tends to create a more stable political condition.

"The positive side of political stability may be created, from its negative impact, of course there is no function of check and balances that can control the running of the government," said Wasisto.

So, what about the PDI-P who won the 2024 Legislative Election? The chairman of the PDIP DPP, Sukur Nababan, revealed that his party will steadfastly become an opposition and will not be tempted by the position of cabinet seat in the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka government.

He gave an example of how PDIP became the opposition in the Government of the 6th President of the Republic of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. "PDIP usually doesn't joke around. We remember how it was in Pak SBY's era. It will never be. We will not be tempted by the power of the ministerial office," he said.

Sukur claims that PDIP will be consistent as the opposition in the next five years. The reason is, PDIP considers it inappropriate for all political parties to strengthen and join the government coalition, and there must be a balancing group.

However, he has no problem if there are other political parties that change their attitude and join the Prabowo government. "We will not be influenced by this," he said.

PDIP And Its Balance

A different view of the PDIP's direction was put forward by the Executive Director of the Strategic Trias, Agung Baskoro. According to him, there is still a possibility that PDIP will join the Prabowo coalition. Agung assessed that there were strong codes that underlie his views.

Agung mentioned a number of these codes, including when Gibran admitted that he had received congratulations from PDIP officials after the KPU announced the results of the 2024 presidential election. Congratulations even many Gibran have received since winning the quick count or quick count.

Then, PDIP politician Deddy Yevri Sitorus said that Prabowo had visited PDIP Bendum Olly Dondokambey who was sick. "This means that the relationship with PDIP is actually fine between Prabowo and Megawati. But not with Jokowi and Megawati. So I still see the possibility of PDIP getting closer," he said.

Agung also considered that the PDIP opportunity to join the Prabowo-Gibran coalition could be determined by Puan Maharani's attitude. He suspects that it is very likely that Puan has met with Gibran in Solo, Central Java. Moreover, Megawati Soekarnoputri's daughter had uploaded the moment of her visit to the Sheikh Zayed Mosque, Solo through her official Instagram account.

According to him, Puan is a high-ranking PDIP official who can most accept Jokowi's decision to place Gibran as Prabowo's vice presidential candidate. In addition, positioning himself as an oposant really requires quite high political stamina, because there are many limited resources, both economic, political, and legal protection.

"The PDIP's decision to form a coalition is now in the hands of Ms. Puan because she is after all the succession of Mrs. Mega after she is no longer the general chairman. So far, the Solo family and Puan have had a good relationship. I still see there is a possibility that PDIP will move closer to the Prabowo-Gibran government, "explained Agung.

Two Groups In PDIP, Who Will Be Chosen By Jokowi

Director of Indobarometer, M. Qodari suspects that the PDIP internals are currently divided into two camps, namely the P and N camps, which are the crown sons of Megawati's successor candidates at PDIP. He explained that the Ganjar-Mahfud pair is a candidate from N.

Therefore, the 2024 presidential election is a way of succession for PDIP. Even though it was decided by Megawati, it was N. Pilpres is not just a presidential election, but a way of succession for PDIP. I see that the Ganjar and Mahfud pairs are candidates from N," said Qodari in a podcast with Total Politics.

"Indeed, the decision is in the hands of Mrs. Mega, but in fact, all this time this candidate has been from the N camp. If G becomes president, then there is a greater chance of succession in the N camp," he continued.

This is what makes the figure of P think that they need to have a plan. Where the position will be safer if you are by the side of another pair of candidates, namely Prabowo-Gibran. That way, P will have friends to achieve success at PDIP.

"So, if you talk about this, then P must have his own game plan. He will be safer if he becomes Gibran. So, this P will have friends towards succession at PDIP," said Qodari.

Meanwhile, a political expert from Andalas University, Asrinaldi hopes that PDIP will become an opposition. According to him, PDIP will be more honored to be outside the government. This position will make PDIP continue to exist in the upcoming 2029 elections. Moreover, PDIP is still the political party with the most seats in the DPR RI for the 2024-2029 period.

PDIP is very strategic to balance Prabowo's power. If PDIP joins the Prabowo-Gibran government, that power is also difficult to control," he said.

The same thing was said by a political researcher from Populi Center, Usep. Syaiful Akhyar, who stated that power tends to be abused if there is no balancing force. Like today, criticism is only carried out by civil society. And almost all political parties form a coalition with the government, so that criticisms seem not heard," he added.

He again criticized the way of "coupling" in the Jokowi government where the opposition seemed to have no place. The conflict doesn't always appear. Maybe there are competitors, there is an opposition, so that the ruling group is not complacent with its power. There are those who always remind, there are those who always give other perspectives, "said Usep.