INDEF Projects Indonesia's Economic Growth In The Fourth Quarter Of 2022 To Be At 5.3 Percent

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JAKARTA - Indonesia's economy in the third quarter grew 5.72 percent in the midst of turbulent global conditions. However, in the fourth quarter, it is projected that Indonesia's economic growth will slow down and cannot grow higher than 5.3 percent.

INDEF economist M. Rizal Taufiqurrohman said that with Indonesia's positive economic conditions, Indonesia was quite confident in the midst of the tsunami of world inflation.

However, Rizal said, INDEF projects that the fourth quarter of Indonesia's economic growth cannot be higher than the third quarter of this year. Even so, Rizal said there are several things the government can do to maintain economic growth.

"It's at 5.3 percent, but there are several things the government needs to do to maintain economic growth, namely, capital expenditures and productive goods," he said in Jakarta, Thursday, November 10.

In addition, Rizal said, the government must also make moderate adjustments to the Bank Indonesia (BI) benchmark interest rate. According to him, it is necessary to strengthen the domestic market for various products that are competitive in the global market, as well as the distribution of social assistance and social assistance that is right on target.

Even so, according to Rizal, Indonesia can still feel the windfall profit from a number of commodities that are booming, the condition is that all management of abundant natural resources must be pushed to the downstream industry.

"Why the downstream industry, because it will save in contributing added value," said Rizal.

For example, currently, nickel is booming. Therefore, it is necessary to encourage nickel processing to be carried out domestically so that the end product is exported.

"Indonesia takes advantage of the windfall profit, looking for other market sources that absorb foreign exchange better with more and more commodities, namely food and energy," he said.

For your information, based on a report from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in the third quarter, Indonesia got a windfall profit from coal, palm oil, iron, and steel at 6.38 percent. If the state returns to experiencing a profit windfall, supporting the state budget, one of which can provide even greater subsidies and assistance.

Meanwhile, the Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (FEB UI) Teguh Dartanto said that Indonesia's economic achievements should be grateful to all parties. According to him, the 5.72 percent growth is encouraging, considering the global economic conditions are volatile.

"We should be grateful that the Indonesian economy is still growing by 5.72 percent (yoy) amidst the threat of a global recession," he said.

In addition, this achievement occurred when Indonesia was also haunted by various tough challenges, both from global and domestic conditions.

"Our economic performance is quite encouraging even though there are shadows of a global recession, a decline in commodities, the threat of inflation, and an increase in interest rates," he said.

However, Teguh emphasized the importance of controlling food commodity prices so that impressive economic achievements can also be felt by the small community. In addition, the government also needs to prevent a shortage of food stocks in the market that can trigger price increases.

"So that economic performance can be felt directly by the small community, the government must continue to be vigilant and seriously control inflation or prices in the community, especially food, and ensure the availability of goods in the market," he said.

Previously, the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said that Indonesia is now more resilient and able to carve impressive economic growth achievements of up to 5.72 percent in the third quarter of 2022 on a year on year (YoY) basis.

"In the midst of a downwardly connected world economy, Indonesia's economic growth recorded an impressive performance during 2022, which has exceeded growth before the pandemic or 2019," he said.