Indo Barometer: 2024 Presidential Election Potentially One Round

DOC VOI

JAKARTA - Executive Director of Indo Barometer M. Qodari said that the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) has the potential for one round with the presidential and vice presidential candidate pair Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka being the winners.

"So for now, if you use the data I have, this has the potential for one round," said M. Qodari as quoted by ANTARA, Friday, November 10.

From the results of the last survey by Indo Barometer, October 25, 2023, the electability of the presidential/vice presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka won with a score of 34.20 percent.

Meanwhile, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md's electability was 26.2 percent and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar 18.3 percent.

As many as 21.3 percent of respondents stated that they had not voted, had not decided, did not answer, or kept their choices a secret.

With the normal distribution mechanism, the number of respondents who have not voted, can be distributed to each presidential/vice presidential candidate pair with the highest distribution value for prospective candidate pairs (paslon) with the highest electability and the lowest distribution for candidate pairs with low electability.

"So respondents who have not decided on this, we don't know where they will run away. Normal distribution does not share these respondents equally, but those with large electability can be large, can be moderate, and small can be small," he said.

Thus, Prabowo-Gibran's electability can reach 43.5 percent, Ganjar-Mahfud 33.3 percent, and Anies-Muhaimin 23.2 percent.

"With this data, there can be a potential for a one-round presidential election," he said.

Based on a telephone survey by PatraData on October 25, 2023, Prabowo-Gibran's electability was also superior with a fairly high score of 43.9 percent. Ganjar-Mahfud's electability was 26.9 percent and Anies-Muhaimin 18.1 percent.

The face-to-face survey by Populi Center on 29 October 5 November 2023 also showed Prabowo-Gibran's electability was superior with 43.2 percent, Ganjar-Mahfud 23 percent, and Anies-Muhaimin 22.3 percent.

Qodari said that Prabowo-Gibran's electability was also superior in the SMRC phone survey on December 31, November 3, 2023, which had been circulating in various media with a value of 45.3 percent. Meanwhile, Ganjar-Mahfud 22.9 percent and Anies-Muhaimin 19 percent.

From this data, he said, it seems that there is progress towards the increase in Prabowo-Gibran's vote after Gibran's declaration as a vice presidential candidate.

"My data, Prabowo-Gibranselisih is 8 percent with Ganjar-Mahfud. Shifting to Populi Center and SMRC whose data was taken in November, the difference has widened to 20 percent," he said.

In various survey data, there are respondents who have not yet made a choice for candidate pair with a percentage of 11.1 percent (PatraData), 11.6 percent (Populi Center), and 12.8 percent (SMRC).

"If respondents have not voted, they will be proportionally distributed to Prabowo-Gibran, Ganjar-Mahfud, and Anies-Muhaimin. Actually, the 2024 presidential election has the potential for one round," he said.