LSI Denny JA: Prabowo's Electability Drops 3 Percent If Accompanied By Erick Tohir

Prabowo Subianto/ Photo: Antara

JAKARTA - The results of the latest survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA show that Prabowo Subianto's electability far outperforms the other two potential presidential candidates, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo in West Java.

LSI Communication Image Executive Director Denny JA, Toto Izul Fatah, as reported by Antara, Thursday, September 28, said that Prabowo is still firmly leading the electability, both in individual simulations and in partners.

The survey photographed the voters' preferences of West Java residents towards presidential candidates, vice presidential candidates, and political parties.

The survey activity was carried out from September 10-19 2023 using the "multistage random sampling" method with a standard 440 respondents through face-to-face interviews using a questionnaire with a 4.8 percent "margin of error".

For individuals, he said, Prabowo was 46.1 percent superior. However, when paired with Erick Tohir, it fell 3 percent to 43.4 percent.

In second place, Anies Baswedan excels above Ganjar Pranowo with 29.3 percent. Similar to Prabowo, when Anies paired up with Muhaimin Iskandar, also fell 4 percent to 25.5 percent.

Meanwhile, Ganjar, in accordance with the survey results, had to settle for third place with 18.4 percent electability.

What is interesting, said Toto, is that although Ganjar is still in the number 3 position, when a simulation was made in pairs with Ridwan Kamil, his electability rose from 18.4 percent to 24.8 percent. Likewise, when Ganjar paired with Sandiaga Uno, it rose to 20.0 percent.

Toto compared that referring to the LSI Denny JA Survey data a year earlier or in February 2022, these three potential presidential candidates have indeed increased. Prabowo, up from 26.0 percent to 46.1 percent. Then Anies from 17.3 percent to 29.3 percent and Ganjar, from the previous 7.8 percent to 18.4 percent.

According to Toto, from the results of a qualitative analysis, Prabowo's advantage is in the number one position because he has fought as a presidential candidate in the previous election, where he has indeed excelled in West Java. Second, because Gerindra's party engine has also been relatively mobile.

"In addition, there is Dedi Mulyadi's movement which is quite massive and all out campaigning for Prabowo with a series of cultural events at a number of points in West Java," he said.

He said that Dedi also brought the voter carriage from previously Golkar now supports Prabowo who supports him when he is now moving to Gerindra.

As for the other two presidential candidates, Anies and Ganjar, support has increased more because of the massive attributes of public space such as banners, banners and stickers. Including, in line with the wider public knowledge in West Java of the names of the presidential candidates. Especially, through various social media platforms.

Meanwhile, for the party led by Prabowo, namely Gerindra, according to the survey results, it has succeeded in overtaking the PDI-P to the number one position.

Regarding party electability, Gerindra with 18.2 percent has succeeded in overtaking PDIP, which was previously 18.8 percent displaced to third place to 15.7 percent.

Rank number two, occupied by Golkar with 16.8 percent, PKS 10.2 percent, PKB 6.1 percent, PAN 5.5 percent, Democrat 4.8 percent, Nasdem 3.9 percent, PPP 2.3 percent and Perindo 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, other parties, the Ummat Party, PSI, PBB and Garuda are still below 1 percent.

In a temporary qualitative analysis, Gerindra's increase was not only due to the start of the party's engine, but was also contributed by Prabowo's superior personal factor as a presidential candidate in West Java. To be precise, Gerindra is one of the parties that has succeeded in getting the electability blessing of the Prabowo coat-tail effect (tail tail effect).

As for the increase in Golkar, from previously ranked 3rd with 14.7 percent, it rose to second place with 16.8 percent, one of which, it is suspected that there is a factor that Ridwal Kamil is increasingly known to the public to have officially become a Golkar cadre.

"Of course it's just one of the factors. Because this survey is more quantitative, not qualitative. Maybe it needs FGD to know for sure. What is clear, the cause factor is not single. Moreover, in the next three four months the political map is still very dynamic," he said.