JAKARTA - PDIP DPP chairman Puan Maharani is scheduled to meet Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto this weekend. After meeting with Airlangga, Puan is also scheduled to come to the house of Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto in Hambalang. On the other hand, the Golkar Party has collaborated with PAN and PPP in the forum for the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). Meanwhile, Gerindra has partnered with PKB. So, can PDIP's arrival to Golkar and Gerindra shake up the coalition that has been formed?
Political communication expert from Gadjah Mada University (UGM) Nyarwi Ahmad, assessed that PDIP's visit to a number of parties did not necessarily change the current coalition map. Because according to him, it is unlikely that PDIP will join KIB in the near future. This, said Nyarwi, is based on a number of analyzes. First, the number of KIB votes is sufficient to apply for a presidential-vice vice presidential candidate (candidate-candidate) pair from internal coalitions.
"I see that the opportunity for them to form a coalition in the near future is very small. Because the calculations of the 3 parties in a parliamentary threshold (PT) already have their own tickets without having to form a coalition with PDIP," Nyarwi said in Jakarta, Friday, September 2.
As is known, the presidential threshold or the presidential nomination threshold is regulated in Article 122 of Law 7/2017 concerning Elections. Political parties (political parties) or coalition political parties that can apply for presidential and vice-presidential candidates must have a minimum of 20 percent of seats in the DPR or 25 percent of valid votes nationally in elections.
"Meanwhile, KIB has pocketed 148 seats with details of Golkar 85 seats, PAN 44 seats and PPP 19 seats. Thus, KIB has met the presidential threshold," explained the Executive Director of Indonesian Presidential Studies (IPS).
Second, he continued, although she has not officially announced the presidential and vice presidential candidates carried in the 2024 presidential election, KIB will not consider carrying Puan Maharani in the 2024 presidential election. This, said Nyarwi, is due to Puan Maharani's electability and popularity which is considered not yet strong among voters.
"Those two things make the reason that in the near future there will be no coalition," said Nyarwi.
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