Omicron Predicted To Slope In March, But Beware Of Rising Again After Lebaran

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JAKARTA - A microbiologist from the University of Indonesia, Amin Soebandrio, predicts that the surge in COVID-19 cases due to the Omicron variant will slow down in March.

This is predicted from the trend curve of cases in other countries which will take about 2 to 3 months to get past the surge in COVID-19 cases due to the spread of Omicron.

"The curve that occurs in countries that peak first occurs about 2-3 months after appearing for the first time, then tends to decrease. We hope that Indonesia will also be like that. If you look at the curve experienced by other countries, it will probably be around March down (the case)," Amin said in a virtual discussion, Thursday, February 24.

However, Amin admitted that he could not confirm whether Indonesia had reached the peak of the Omicron case or not. Given, the movement of daily cases still has not decreased consistently.

"The current (case trend) is like sawtooth, yes. It had dropped in number, then rose again. So, there were several peaks (cases) before it experienced a steady decline. It might still take a few weeks," he said.

Furthermore, Amin asked all parties to be aware of the entry period of the month of Ramadan until Eid al-Fitr this year. Reflecting on the condition of the cases in 2020 and 2021, Indonesia had experienced a spike in cases after Eid al-Fitr due to the high mobility of the people. This is also exacerbated by the deployment of the Delta variant in mid-2021.

"We have to look at the fasting month, there will be several activities that cause people to gather, starting from Tarawih prayers, until later maybe during the holidays," said Amin.

"We learned from last year's experience that we managed to control the movement of people's mobility days until Eid. But after Eid there was an increase, so we see the peak in June-July. Hopefully that doesn't happen," he concluded.