IndEX Survey: Prabowo-Gibran Chance To Win One Round

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Elections and Strategic (indEX) Research survey institute shows that the electability of the presidential candidate (readpres) and the prospective vice presidential candidate (readwapres) Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming reaches 50.4 percent in a three-pair simulation and has the opportunity to win one round.

"The Prabowo-Gibran pair have the chance to win one round in the 2024 presidential election, by achieving more than 50 percent electability," said IndEX Research Executive Director Vivin Sri Wahyuni as reported by ANTARA, Wednesday, November 8.

In the survey, the pair Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD won 26.0 percent electability, while Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar won 16.8 percent. The remaining 6.8 percent said they did not know or did not answer.

According to Vivin, with the electability of one of the partners more than 50 percent, the 2024 presidential election may only last one round. This also removes concerns that the political process will drag on if the presidential election has to go through two rounds.

He assessed that Gibran's entry as Prabowo's vice president gave extraordinary energy to boost electability in the simulation of three pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates.

"Other presidential candidate supporters in previous surveys switched to Prabowo-Gibran," Vivin said.

Mahfud and Cak Imin, who practically stagnated when paired with their respective presidential candidates, did not see the same thing.

"Prabowo-Gibran is a magnet for wider voters compared to Ganjar and Anies. Gibran, who is in doubt because he is still very young, can actually balance Mahfud and Cak Imin's poor character in high state institutions and parties," continued Vivin.

Vivin also discussed the presence of Gibran as Prabowo's vice president causing controversy because it was based on the decision of the Constitutional Court ahead of registration to the KPU.

"The context that must be seen is that the pair Gibran and Prabowo show Jokowi's seriousness in endorse Prabowo in the 2024 presidential election contestation, where PDIP insists on nominating Ganjar even though it is at risk of losing," said Vivin.

The accusation that the Constitutional Court's decision only benefits Gibran is also unreasonable, because the decision opens a breakthrough for many young people who have experience as state administrators who are elected through elections, both at the executive and legislative levels.

"The Constitutional Court's decision allows presidential or vice presidential candidates to be under 40 years old with backgrounds as regional heads and members of parliament at all levels, both DPR RI and DPD as well as provincial and district/city DPRDs," explained Vivin.

If only 10 percent of these state administrators are young people, there are thousands of people who have the right to advance in the presidential election contestation.

"There are other conditions that are more crucial, namely being carried by political parties, but in principle the Constitutional Court has provided broad opportunities," explained Vivin.

As with Jokowi's presence in the national political stage has provided opportunities for ordinary people outside the elite of the party, Gibran's emergence has also broken down a political system dominated by old politicians.

"The fact that Indonesia is experiencing a demographic bonus and the large number of millennial and gen Z voters underlies the birth of young figures in political events, which then allows Gibran to advance in a more strategic arena," said Vivin.

The Index Research survey was conducted on October 26-31, 2023, on 1200 people representing all provinces. Respondents were randomly selected (multistage random sampling) and interviewed face-to-face. The survey margin of error was 2.9 percent, at a 95 percent confidence level.