El Nino Index Is Predicted To Reach 80 Percent This Month, BMKG Asks For Potential Impacts To Be Observed

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts El Nino's chances in Indonesia will increase to 80 percent in June.

In charge of this potential, the BMKG Climate Variability Analysis Coordinator Supari appealed to all parties to anticipate its impact.

"In line with BMKG's prediction this month, the opportunity is 80 percent. So the figure is 50-60 percent as a prediction at the beginning of that year, because it is getting closer to the target time and it is getting stronger," he said in Jakarta, Wednesday, June 21, which was confiscated by Antara.

Supari said El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was in a neutral condition in March-April 2023. Indicators during May are getting stronger indicating developments leading to El Nino.

Then in the second basis in June 2023, the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly or surface temperature of water in the Central and East Pacific showed the conditions continued to warm up and the SST anomaly in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was in a warm phase.

The South Oscillation Index (SOI) on a weekly scale used to measure differences in air pressure in the atmosphere, also shows a trend towards the phase to El Nino.

Later, El Nino will have an impact on reducing rainfall, as will the positive IOD phenomenon. The combination of the two can have a stronger impact," he said.

Furthermore, BMKG and several other world climate centers have predicted El Nino's chances in the second semester of 2023 with a weak to strong level. The prediction is carried out using a modelling-based system that is prepared using different formulas and developed in each country.

"On average, El Nino this year is on a moderate scale," he said.

According to him, rainfall in August-September-October 2023 is predicted to be in the lower normal category. Especially in Sumatra, Java, Bali, NTB, and NTT, parts of Kalimantan and parts of Sulawesi. Some areas even experience very low category rain, which is below 20 mm/month.

Supari also admitted that he was worried that El Nino this year would repeat the events of drought in 2019. To anticipate this possibility, he recommended the central and regional governments to immediately take anticipatory steps in areas that have the potential to experience rainfall in the low category that could trigger drought and its continued impact.

The next recommendation is to increase the optimization of the function of water resource infrastructure to ensure the reliability of reservoir, reservoir, retention pond, and other artificial water storage for the management of rainfall and its use during the dry season

"Take steps to prepare for the potential for forest and land fires related to low-category rainfall in the 2023 dry season, as well as saving water use," said Supari.