The China-Taiwan War Potentially Erupts in 2023, RI Will 'Arrive a Windfall' Volume II?

JAKARTA – Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) senior economist, Nawir Messi, stated that the escalation of tensions in East Asia between China and Taiwan continues to peak.

According to him, the potential for war to break out is very likely if the tension between the two countries does not subside. In fact, Nawir suspects that war will break out this year.

"Although Joe Biden (US President) and Xin Jinping (Chinese President) have met at the G20, China's potential to attack Taiwan is not closed in the middle or end of this year", he said in a virtual media briefing titled 2023 Economic Initial Notes on Thursday, January5.

Nawir added, if the prediction is true, then new problems will arise in the midst of ongoing global uncertainty.

"These rumors will further complicate the global economic perspective throughout this year", he said.

For your information, the outbreak of war in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine in early 2022 has caused a major supply chain disruption. This then led to soaring prices for several important commodities, especially energy and food, which until now have remained at high levels.

Therefore, with an estimate of the outbreak of war between China and Taiwan, it will push the price tag of necessities even higher.

On the other hand, the surge in commodity prices has brought distinct benefits to Indonesia. This is because the value of mainstay exports such as coal and crude palm oil (CPO) has increased significantly.

This is reflected in the performance of tax revenues in the 2021 and 2022 state budgets which have exceeded the government's target.