Indef Projected Second Quarter 2022 Economic Growth Breaks 5.5 Percent

JAKARTA - Deputy Director of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF), Eko Listiyanto, projects that economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 can reach 5.5 percent year on year (YoY).

Eko said that this growth was driven by the momentum of the Eid holiday which made people's mobility relatively increase.

Plus, homecoming activities that make transportation movements increase significantly.

"The movement of people and transportation during the second quarter increased relatively and is heading to normal, compared to the second quarter of last year", Eko said when contacted by Antara, Wednesday.

If economic growth in the second quarter reaches that number, he continued, economic optimism will emerge which will affect the rupiah exchange rate, the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI), the consumer confidence index, and the business tendency index.

"The effect is on economic optimism", said Eko.

However, he did not deny that in the future there will still be economic risks from rising inflation rates.

This can come from volatile component inflation, core inflation, and inflation of prices regulated by the government.

In addition, he added, the rupiah exchange rate in the future will still face pressure due to the aggressiveness of interest rate increases by the Fed.

Then, the risk of a global recession can also reduce export demand.

"Although Indonesia is unlikely to experience a recession this year", said Eko.

Previously, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati projected economic growth in the second quarter in the range of 4.8 to 5.3 percent (YoY) supported by improving household consumption, investment, and exports and imports.