Vacant Box Scenario For The 2024 Pilkada: Profit Elite, Public Loss

Illustration Of Photos Of Andry Winarko VOI

The competition process in the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) is expected to continue in the Simultaneous Regional Head Election (Pilkada) event which will be held in November 2024.

Executive Director of Indonesian Political Parameters (PPI), Adi Prayitno explained, the residue of the presidential election that continues in the 2024 Pilkada is mainly the competition between the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) which supports Prabowo-Gibran in dealing with the PDI-P who carries Ganjar-Mahfud.

Even in its development, KIM tried to persuade PKS, the NasDem Party and PKB entered a coalition carriage called KIM Plus. If KIM Plus is realized in the 2024 Pilkada, the majority political power will be created and there will be the potential for an empty box scenario.

"In many areas, I see that there is already a phenomenon like that (the discourse on the formation of the majority). If that happens, it is not impossible that the candidates they carry will compete against empty boxes. Except, if there are political parties such as PDIP who can carry their own candidates," said Adi, Monday, August 12, 2024.

One area that has the potential to create an empty box scenario is the West Java gubernatorial election. This is because the Golkar Party, which from the beginning insisted on submitting the name Ridwan Kamil as a candidate for governor, suddenly turned around and supported Dedi Mulyadi or Demul's candidacy carried out by Gerindra.

In early August, the General Chairperson of the Golkar Party, Airlangga Hartarto, emphasized that his party supports Demul as a candidate for governor of the 2024 West Java Pilkada. We have previously developed a meeting in West Java between the Golkar Party, the Golkar Party DPD, and also the Gerindra DPD. Then there was also a meeting between the West Java gubernatorial candidate, Dedi Mulyadi, and Golkar officials, including the Deputy Chairperson (DPRD West Java) Pak Ade Ginanjar, so the conversation has reached there," he said.

Golkar's decision to support Demul certainly raises question marks. The reason is, the results of several survey institutions show that RK's electability is far above the Demul. Kompas Research and Development Survey conducted on June 15-20, 2024, involving 500 respondents, RK's electability was at 36.6 percent, while Demul was only 12.2 percent.

The SMRC survey on 9 June-1 July 2024 with 11,070 respondents, RK electability reached 60.8 percent compared to Demul at 34.5 percent if both were simulated head to head. The head to head simulation carried out by Indonesian Political Indicators also proves the superiority of RK over Demul, with 55.1 percent compared to 38 percent.

Adi Prayitno admitted that he was surprised when Golkar decided to support Demul and was willing to shift RK to the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada. However, he considered that the decision was of course based on a kind of political agreement, especially between Golkar and Gerindra in KIM's body.

This is the reality of KIM, when the KIM parties said they wanted to be solid and committed all party wishes would certainly be compromised with other coalition parties. I see this as a kind of political agreement, a political meeting point, especially between Gerindra and Golkar," he explained.

So what about the NasDem Party, PKS and PKB? From the three political parties, until now only NasDem has declared the name Ilham Habibie as a candidate for governor in the 2024 West Java Pilkada. Meanwhile, PKB and PKS have not. But reflecting on what happened in the Jakarta Pilkada, where initially the three political parties supported Anies and recently began to change their minds, of course the same thing could happen in the 2024 West Java Pilkada.

Moreover, previously the Daily Chairperson of the Gerindra Party, Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, said that KIM would cooperate with other political parties in the gubernatorial election in a number of provinces, such as Jakarta, West Java, and Central Java. "There is Central Java, Jakarta and West Java," he said after attending the Perindo Party Mukarnas, Wednesday, July 31, 2024.

The Axis Of The Santri Plus Coalition Can Last KIM In The West Java Pilkada

The potential for the creation of a Demul scenario against an empty box in the 2024 West Java Pilkada was acknowledged by the Executive Director of the Trias politics Institute, Agung Baskoro. According to him, KIM is the strongest axis today in the world of Indonesian politics. Therefore, the only way to fight KIM is to create a new axis. One of them is the Coalition axis of Santri Plus which can be filled by PKS, PKB, PPP and PDIP.

Even so, the axis of the Santri Plus Coalition can be carried out if the party elite outside KIM can find a word of agreement for victory in the West Java Pilgub. "The PKS Islamic Boarding School is urban Islam, PKS needs to expand its niche of rural Muslims, it is usually represented by PPP and PKB. Especially if it's with PDIP, it's scary. So the potential has a big new axis, if I look at West Java," he added.

He said, as the second winner of the 2024 Legislative Election in West Java, PKS could be the driving force for the formation of the Santri Plus Coalition axis. If this can be realized, this new axis is believed to be a stumbling block for Demul and KIM in the 2024 West Java Pilgub. PKS has a bargaining position, has a large seat after Gerindra. PKS has a moral responsibility to present a new menu, the democratic monument menu in West Java, so that it is better than Jakarta. Because PKS has a large base here, it's a shame if PKS does not participate," explained Agung.

Regarding political figures, if the axis is formed, it is not difficult for PKS, PKB, PPP, and PDIP to find figures to be nominated in the West Java gubernatorial election. This is because the four parties have a number of political figures who have quite good electability. PKS has Haru Suandharu, PKB has Acep Adang Ruhiyat, PPP has Uu Ruzhanul Ulum and Sandiaga Uno, and PDIP has Ono Surono and Susi Pudjiastuti as alternative candidates.

The chairman of the West Java PKS DPW, Heru Suandharu, admitted that he had communicated politically with various parties. He also did not deny that all possibilities could occur, including the coalition of Islamic parties. If political communication with several political parties continues and is constructive. I think we are still communicating and exploring all possibilities," he said.

The Executive Director of PPI, Adi Prayitno, considers that the scenario of the single candidate pair against the empty box in the 2024 Pilkada is an irony for Indonesian democracy. He then questioned the political party's attitude towards the scenario of the empty box in this election. Because, if that happens, political parties seem to have no choice to propose their cadres to become candidates for leadership.

He emphasized that the essence of regional elections is basically political betting between people and people, not against empty boxes. Therefore, if an empty box appears in the 2024 Pilkada, of course it will have a negative impact on Indonesian democracy.

"It's useless for all this time that political parties have been touting as parties who carry out regeneration if in the end they don't want to carry their own cadres. If this empty box scenario actually occurs in the 2024 Pilkada, then the ones who benefit are the elites of political parties. Meanwhile, the people lose because they are not given the choice to determine which leaders are deemed appropriate based on their capabilities or abilities," concluded Adi.