JAKARTA - The world is facing a new threat of extreme weather after the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the formation of El Nino which is expected to reach a very strong category by the end of 2026 to early 2027.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that the current El Nino has fully developed. Based on the latest projections, the intensity is expected to continue to increase throughout the second half of 2026 until winter in the Northern Hemisphere in the period 2026-2027.
What makes scientists more alert is the opportunity for this El Nino to enter the very strong category reaching 63 percent in the period from November 2026 to January 2027. Because of its wide impact on global weather, phenomena with extreme intensity like this are often dubbed "El Nino Godzilla".
If this scenario occurs, the 2026-2027 El Nino will be on par with the largest El Nino event ever recorded, including a strong phenomenon in 1997-1998 that caused climate disruption in various parts of the world.
The impact is expected to include drastic changes in rainfall patterns, major floods in a number of areas, prolonged drought in other areas, disruption of the fisheries sector, changes in tropical storm activity, and a spike in global temperatures.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than normal conditions.
In normal conditions, the trade winds push warm water to the western Pacific so that Indonesia and Australia get enough water vapor supply to produce rain. When El Nino occurs, the pattern weakens so that warm water shifts to the middle and east of the Pacific.
The change disrupts global atmospheric circulation and affects weather patterns in various regions of the world. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) calls El Nino one of the main factors that control global climate variability.
Why is this El Nino considered unusual?
Scientists assess that El Nino 2026-2027 has a number of different characteristics compared to previous events.
First, the transition from La Nina to El Nino occurred very quickly. The world has just experienced a La Nina phase in the winter of 2025. In the normal climate cycle, the change towards El Nino is very strong in a short time is considered rare.
This condition indicates the existence of a very large reserve of heat energy under the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean which then rises to the surface in a relatively short time.
Second, the high agreement of the results of simulations of various global climate models. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory meteorologist Nat Johnson said the current projections bear a resemblance to the extreme El Nino of 1997-1998.
"I know this is something unusual," Johnson said when explaining the results of the climate modeling he observed.
Third, this phenomenon develops when the earth's temperature is much higher due to climate change. Scientists confirm that global warming does not cause El Nino, but can strengthen its impact.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the current global average temperature has increased by more than 1 degree Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. This condition makes heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather triggered by El Nino potentially worse.
Indonesia at Risk of More Dry Drought
One of the regions that is expected to be significantly affected is Indonesia. In many previous El Nino events, Indonesia has experienced a decrease in rainfall, an increase in air temperature, and a higher risk of forest and land fires.
Apart from Indonesia, Australia and parts of South Asia are also potentially facing drier conditions than normal.
Conversely, regions such as Peru and Ecuador are at risk of extreme rainfall and major flooding due to the increase in sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
Threats to Agriculture and Food Security
The agricultural sector is one of the most vulnerable to El Nino. Changes in rainfall patterns can shift the planting season, reduce land productivity, and increase the risk of crop failure.
Weather uncertainty also has the potential to disrupt food supplies and increase pressure on agricultural commodity prices in a number of countries.
Therefore, WMO encourages governments in various countries to strengthen early warning systems and prepare mitigation measures in the agricultural, water resources, energy, and health sectors before the impact of El Nino reaches its peak.
For Indonesia, this warning is important considering that the current government is also preparing various steps to anticipate the potential peak of El Nino in August to September 2026, including strengthening irrigation, distribution of water pumps, accelerating the planting season, and expanding protection through the agricultural business insurance program.
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