Apple Becomes World Number One Smartphone Manufacturer Until 2029, Overtakes Samsung After 18 Years

IPhone 17, is the main driver of Apple's sales increase (photo: x @mtgproductions)

JAKARTA - Apple is projected to reclaim its position as the world's largest smartphone producer for the first time since 2011 and maintain it until 2029. This prediction comes in a recent Counterpoint Research report seen by Bloomberg, suggesting that the surge in iPhone demand, especially the upcoming series like the iPhone 17, will be the main driver of the sales increase.

According to the report, iPhone shipments are expected to rise 10% by 2025, much higher than Samsung's growth of only about 4.6%. With the global smartphone market growing by about 3.3%, Apple is predicted to reach 19.4% market share, placing it at the top.

Strong demand from the United States and China is said to be an important factor. Many users who bought iPhones during the pandemic are now entering a large upgrade period. In addition, Counterpoint noted that 358 million used iPhone units were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, which could potentially encourage the purchase of new devices in the coming years.

Bloomberg previously also reported that Apple was preparing a series of very interesting models in 2026 and 2027. Products such as the iPhone Fold, iPhone 17e, as well as the 20-year edition iPhone in 2027 are expected to boost sales. If all goes according to predictions, Apple can maintain its position as the number one smartphone manufacturer until 2029.

Even so, this dominance applies in the annual sales category, not the number of devices being used around the world. In terms of install bases, Android still dominates with more than 70% of the global share, while Apple only excels in some markets, such as the United States, where iOS is close to 60%.

The diversity of Android device manufacturers from very cheap to premium makes the ecosystem difficult to control in terms of the volume of the device in circulation. Meanwhile, Apple is still the only producer to issue devices with iOS.

The conditions in which Apple is the leader of device sales but not the largest platform globally have strategic benefits. With a smaller install base, Apple can avoid some monopoly accusations and regulatory pressures that usually target dominant platforms.

With the various major innovations that will come in the next two years, Apple appears to be entering a rare growth cycle and could be the company's biggest momentum since the iPhone X era.