JAKARTA - The crypto market is still volatile, and the in-depth analysis of experts is increasingly crucial to understand its movement. One of the well-known crypto analysts, Benjamin Cowen, recently gave his view that Bitcoin (BTC) dominance may decline in the coming months.
Cowen, who has more than 807,000 followers on YouTube, noticed a macroeconomic indicator leading to a significant shift in the altcoin market. In his latest video, Cowen highlighted the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator an indicator designed to detect early signs of recession through employment data.
This indicator gives a signal when an average of three months of the national unemployment rate (U3) increased by 0.50 percentage points or more compared to its lowest point in the last 12 months. Based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, this indicator reached 0.53 percentage points last July.
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Cowen explained that this signal could indicate a looser arrival of monetary policy. "Regardless of whether you believe a recession is coming or not, this signal indicates that a looser monetary policy may be implemented soon," Cowen said. He also predicts that Bitcoin dominance is likely to peak in the near future, with its peak forecast could occur no later than September and no later than December.
Furthermore, Cowen also highlighted the weaknesses that began to appear in the labor market, such as the decline in the number of job vacancies per unemployed worker to pre-pandemic levels. "They haven't lowered interest rates, and this is likely to continue to worsen until they do," he added.
Analysts predict that this change could have a major impact on the shift in power in the crypto market as a whole. If Bitcoin dominance really declines as predicted, this moment could be an opportunity for investors to focus more on developments in the altcoin market, where the potential growth and innovation will be widening.
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