JAKARTA - Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader of crypto assets, faces a significant drop in value. Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin could fall to the range of US$50,000 to US$52,000 (around Rp. 720 million to Rp. 748.8 million), following a decline below the psychological threshold of 60,000 US dollars.
Corn highlighted the factors that contributed to this potential decline, including the successive withdrawal of funds from bitcoin (ETF) trading funds in the United States and a less enthusiastic market reaction to the launch of bitcoin and ether spot ETFs in Hong Kong. More than that, he attributed the recent Bitcoin price drop to Hong Kong's low spot crypto ETF trading volume.
According to Standard Chartered analysis, in addition to crypto specific factors, wider macroeconomic conditions have also put pressure on the price of Bitcoin. Kendrick stressed that the decline in liquidity measures, particularly in the United States since mid-April, has affected crypto-like assets that typically benefit from abundant liquidity.
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With the strong US inflation data background and the prospect of cutting the Federal Reserve interest rate less, Kendrick considered liquidity to be very important. He also alluded to the possibility of Bitcoin's re-entry to a lower price range if US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the 15th showed a supportive figure.
Despite the prediction of a short-term decline, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. The bank even increased its year-end price forecast for Bitcoin by 2024 from US$100,000 to US$150,000 (approximately IDR 2.16 billion), implying that Bitcoin could reach 250,000 (approximately IDR 3.6 billion) by 2025, depending on the strong flow of funds to the ETF bitcoin spot and potential purchases by the forex reserve manager.
Kendrick admits that the prediction may take time to materialize, but he believes that approaching the US presidential election, which Donald Trump may have won, could trigger a Bitcoin price spike from around September to the end of the year.
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