Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Will Drop Again

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX. (Photo; Doc. Crypturing)

JAKARTA - Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of the BitMEX crypto exchange, is taking bold steps by buying Bitcoin's (put) option for $35,000 (IDR 546.3 million), with the hope of a drop of under $40,000 (IDR 624.4 million) in the near future. The sell option recently purchased by Hayes will result in profits if the price of Bitcoin drops below $35,000 on March 29, 2024.

Hayes stressed his belief that Bitcoin will fall below a critical threshold of $40,000. The man, who once served as CEO of BitMEX, conveyed his prediction regarding a decrease in Bitcoin value until the end of January 2024, following the announcement of the US Treasury's quarterly tax return scheduled for January 31.

The announcement of the quarterly tax return of the Treasury Department outlines a debt loan and management policy for the coming quarters, including details of debt securities auctions to fund government spending. Investors monitored this announcement due to its macro-effects.

The leading blockchain reporter, Colin Wu, revealed that Hayes may issue 5 BTC to purchase a $35,000 selling option. Data from Wu shows that each share is purchased for 0.025 BTC, with a total expenditure of 5 BTC to obtain 200 sell options worth $203,000 (IDR 3.2 billion).

The selling option is a financial agreement that grants rights holders, without requiring, to sell certain assets at agreed prices within a certain period of time.

In this case, Hayes has the right to sell Bitcoin at a price of $35,000, even if the market price is lower, until March 29, 2024. This means he will benefit from the difference between market prices and benchmark prices, without option fees.