Bayer Leverkusen Vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Mission Impossible Die Werkself In Champions League

Mario Hermoso, captain of Bayer Leverkusen who hopes for a miracle. (photo: x @bayer04_en)

Bayer Leverkusen had to face their toughest challenge this season at home to Bayern Munich in the second leg of the Champions League last 16 at BayArena on Tuesday, March 11 local time or Wednesday morning WIB. Xabi Alonso's side had to score at least four goals without reply to reverse the aggregate after a landslide loss of 0-3 in the first leg at the Allianz Arena on March 5, 2025.

When Bayern, who has appeared dominant throughout the season and Leverkusen who are experiencing a decline in performance, can Die Werkself create one of the biggest comebacks in Champions League history?

Bayer Leverkusen started the first leg quite solidly, but ended up experiencing destruction in the second half. Bayern's opener was scored by Jamal Musiala in the 54th minute after goalkeeper Matej Kovar made a fatal mistake.

Kovar tried to secure a less dangerous cross, but failed to catch the ball perfectly, giving Musiala an easy chance to find the ball into an empty net.

Shortly after the goal, the disaster hit Leverkusen again. Nordi Mukiele received a second yellow card after violating Leroy Sané in the 62nd minute, forcing his team to play with 10 people. This situation makes it increasingly difficult for Leverkusen to catch up, especially since Bayern are increasingly aggressive in taking advantage of the advantage of the number of players.

Leverkusen's suffering grew in the 85th minute when Maddon Tapsoba knocked Harry Kane in the penalty box. The referee without hesitation pointed to the spot, and Kane calmly beat Kovar to ensure Bayern's 3-0 win.

With a three-goal deficit, Leverkusen had to score at least four goals without reply in the second leg to qualify for the quarter-finals. History records that only three teams have overturned a three-goal deficit in the knockout stages of the Champions League: Deportivo La CoruUS against AC Milan (2003-04), Barcelona against Paris Saint-Germain (2016-17), and AS Roma against Barcelona (2017-18).

Leverkusen came into this match with less than convincing capital. After the defeat to Bayern, they again swallowed a poor result in the Bundesliga with a 0-2 defeat to Werder Bremen on Saturday 9 March. These results make their position even more difficult in the race for the league title, eight points behind Bayern with only nine games remaining.

In the last six games in all competitions, Leverkusen have only won two wins, two draws, and two defeats. The successive defeats of Bayern and Werder Bremen are the first for Die Werkself since May 2023, indicating that they are starting to lose momentum at the most crucial time of the season.

Even so, their home performance in the Champions League remains impressive. Leverkusen have won their last four games at BayArena in this event without a single goal conceded. However, they have to perform much better than the first leg if they want to overcome Bayern.

On the other hand, Bayern also experienced a slight setback in the Bundesliga after being defeated 2-3 by VfL Bochum on Saturday 9 March. Despite having a two-goal lead, Bayern had to play with 10 people from the 42nd minute after Joao Palhinha received a red card.

Bochum took advantage of the number of players to turn things around and give Bayern the first defeat after 10 games unbeaten in all competitions.

However, that defeat did not immediately reduce Bayern's dominance. In 11 Champions League games this season, they have scored 26 goals and conceded only nine times. They also recorded six wins in the last 10 games in all competitions with an average scoring of more than two goals per game.

Coach Vincent Kompany has met Leverkusen three times this season in domestic competitions, with a two-time draw in the Bundesliga and one defeat in DFB-Pokal. Even so, they still performed solidly in the three meetings by conceding only two goals.

Leverkusen will lose Nordi Mukiele who had to undergo suspension due to a red card in the first leg. In addition, Jeanuel Belocian is also confirmed to be absent until the end of the season due to serious injuries. The absence of these two players makes Alonso likely to play Mario Hermoso, Piero Hincapie, and Jonathan Tah in a three-back formation.

In midfield, Robert Andrich is doubtful of appearing due to illness, so Exequiel Palacios is likely to have a duet with Granit Xhaka to arrange the game.

Leverkusen's biggest problem is on attack, where they will lose their main playmaker, Florian Wirtz, who is still in the process of recovering from injury and can only return to play in early April. With Wirtz out of action, Alonso is likely to play Amine Adli as a supporter of Victor Boniface and Nathan Tella on the front lines.

In the Bayern camp, their main captain and goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer, is still recovering from a calf injury and is only expected to return at the end of March. Therefore, Jonas Urbig will remain the main choice under the crossbar.

Di lini belakang, Dayot Upamecano dan Kim Min-jae akan menjadi mainan, sementara Joshua Kimmich hampir pasti mengisi lini tengah bersama Leon Goretzka dalam bentukan double pivot.

On the front lines, Harry Kane will remain the spearhead, with the support of Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, and Kingsley Coman. With this formation, Bayern are expected to continue to play attacking despite having a big aggregate advantage.

Realistically, Leverkusen's chances of turning things around are very small. Bayern is a very experienced team in the Champions League and can almost always maintain a big aggregate advantage in the knockout match.

However, in football nothing is impossible. If Leverkusen were able to score a quick goal in the first 20 minutes, they could increase pressure and take advantage of BayArena's atmosphere to put Bayern under pressure.

One of Bayern's weaknesses that can be exploited is their defense, which sometimes loses concentration in away matches. The 0-3 defeat to Feyennoord in the group phase shows that they could be missed if they didn't play with high discipline.

However, seeing Bayern's highly consistent performance and Leverkusen's declining trend, the realistic prediction is Bayern will win this game again or at least win a draw to ensure a place in the quarter-finals.

Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-3):Kovar; Hermoso, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Palacios, Grimaldo; Tella, Adli, Boniface

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1):Urbig; Stanisic, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Goretzka, Kimmich; Olise, Musiala, Coman; Kane

Score prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Bayern Munich (Aggregate: 1-5)