Revealed, Four US Intelligence Services In Afghanistan Disagree, Failed To Predict The Fall Of Kabul

US troops stand guard at Kabul airport during a massive evacuation from Afghanistan. (Wikimedia Commons/Staff Sgt. Victor Mancilla)

JAKARTA - Four intelligence agencies failed to predict Kabul would fall to the Taliban in the short term, although they were able to analyze the group has the power to fight the Afghan government, according to a report published Thursday.

Citing Daily Sabah Friday, October 29, the report published by The Wall Street Journal reviews dozens of assessments made by the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the State Department's intelligence bureau.

As a result, the four intelligence agencies agreed that the internationally recognized government of Afghanistan would not be able to survive without the help of the United States. But, failed to predict the time of the fall.

A May 17 report from the CIA determined the Afghan government would fall by the end of the year. Less than a month later, an assessment said the Taliban would take full control within two years, the Journal reported.

On June 4, the DIA said the Taliban would adopt a strategy of taking and isolating rural areas. Three days later, the DIA said in an executive memo that the government would continue to detain Kabul.

"The lack of intelligence underpinned several policy failures that resulted in chaotic mass civilian evacuations in the final weeks of the 20-year-old Afghanistan war in the US," reports the Journal.

Far from official intelligence analysis, Kabul will fall to the Taliban on August 15 with former President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the capital as insurgents approach.

The United States was forced to hide at Kabul's Hamid Karzai International Airport, carrying out hasty evacuations of more than 120,000 foreigners and Afghan nationals in the next two weeks in the chaotic final days of Washington's withdrawal.