Boni Hargens: Replacing the Police Chief Could Backfire on President Prabowo

Senior Political Analyst and Founder of the Indonesian Voter Institute (LPI), Boni Hargens (Ist)

JAKARTA - Political, legal, and intelligence issues analyst Boni Hargens assesses that the discourse on the replacement of the Head of the Indonesian National Police (Kapolri) at this time has the potential to have a politically damaging impact on President Prabowo Subianto. According to him, in the midst of a political situation that is still influenced by the polemics of handling the case of alleged corruption involving former senior members of the Attorney General's Office, the replacement of the National Police Chief risks giving rise to various speculations and narratives that can erode public confidence in the government.

Boni said that although constitutionally the President has the prerogative to appoint and dismiss the National Police Chief, every political decision must also consider the momentum and the developing public perception.

"We have just finished with the controversy about the corruption case involving former high-ranking prosecutors. There is a group in society who considers it a form of conflict between the police and the prosecutor's office, although that assessment is not correct," Boni told reporters, Thursday, August 6.

According to Boni, in the current situation, the decision to replace the National Police Chief can be used by certain parties to build an opinion that is not beneficial to the government.

He assessed that the opposition group had the potential to link the change of the National Police Chief with the handling of corruption cases that dragged former Attorney General's Office officials, although the narrative was not necessarily in line with the facts.

"The opposition group can claim that the change of the National Police Chief was carried out because the National Police Chief was too brave to investigate corruption cases involving individuals from the Attorney General's Office, a narrative that links administrative decisions with alleged interference with law enforcement," said Boni.

Therefore, he reminded that in the political world, even a false narrative can affect public opinion if it is spread at the right momentum and targets groups of people who have suspicions about the government.

Boni assessed that there were two parties who were most likely to be harmed if the narrative developed, namely President Prabowo as the head of government and the overall law enforcement institution.

According to him, the perception of the independence of law enforcement officers is an important asset that must be maintained because it will affect the level of public trust in the government.

He emphasized that he was not rejecting the possibility of a change in the National Police Chief, but suggested that the discussion should not be carried out in the near future.

"I am not advocating a permanent rejection of the idea of changing the National Police Chief, but rather suggesting that the idea be temporarily ignored by the president. This recommendation is based on the butterfly effect concept, where a small decision made in an inappropriate context can trigger a series of chain reactions whose impact far exceeds the initial estimate," he said.

Boni explained that a leader is not only required to be able to make legal decisions, but also to be able to read the political situation and choose the most appropriate time to act.

According to him, delaying a decision does not mean showing weakness, but rather part of a strategy to maintain political stability and public confidence.

"The concept of 'butterfly effect' in this context refers to the potential disproportionate and unpredictable impact of one administrative decision on the entire public trust system and political stability," he said.

Furthermore, Boni assessed that the discourse on the replacement of the National Police Chief was indeed a common dynamic in the Indonesian constitutional system. However, he reminded that the legality of a decision is not always identical to political wisdom.

"The prerogatives of the president do not need to be questioned, it is constitutional. But the context of its implementation is very decisive in how the decision will be accepted and interpreted by the public," he said.

He also reminded that the polemics related to the handling of the case of the former Attorney General's Office officials had indeed begun to subside, but still left certain perceptions among the public.

"In an atmosphere like this, every executive step that comes into contact with law enforcement institutions will tend to be read through the lens of suspicion. A strong government is not only one that is able to act, but one that is able to manage the narrative around its actions," said Boni.

Previously, the issue of replacing the National Police Chief resurfaced in the public sphere after various speculations emerged regarding the possibility of a refresh in the National Police. However, until now the government has not made an official statement regarding the plan to replace the National Police Chief or the name of the successor candidate.

Boni also emphasized that discussions regarding the replacement of the National Police Chief should not be solely seen from the aspect of replacing officials, but also consider the impact on political stability and government credibility.

"The right decision at the wrong time can backfire. And for a president who is building the foundation of his government, maintaining credibility and public trust is an invaluable long-term investment," he concluded.