BMKG Predicts El Nino to Last Until Early 2027

Head of BMKG) Teuku Faisal Fathani (right) accompanied by Deputy for Weather Modification BMKG Tri Handoko Seto /ANTARA FOTO/Darryl Ramadhan

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the El Nino phenomenon will last at least until the beginning of the first quarter of 2027 with the peak intensity reaching the strong category.

BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani said that this phenomenon could be accompanied by the emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition from September to December 2026.

"This climate information is in line with the BMKG's prediction, where the El Nino phenomenon is projected to last until early 2027 and trigger a drier than normal drought condition," he said as quoted by ANTARA, Thursday, July 30.

He explained that by mid-July 2026, a total of 509 Seasonal Zones (ZOM) or about 54.5 percent of the Indonesian mainland had entered the dry season, including most of the islands of Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua.

The BMKG Climatology Directorate in this case reported that the peak of the 2026 dry season is expected to occur predominantly in August and September, with 437 ZOMs experiencing a longer dry season than usual.

"This extreme drought threat has a direct implication on the high risk of forest and land fires (karhutla), where BMKG has recorded 4,900 hot spots until the end of July 2026," said Teuku Faisal Fathani.

As a proactive mitigation step, he continued, in addition to providing factual analysis, BMKG also strengthened the Weather Modification Operation (OMC) in various disaster-prone areas of forest fires and drought, such as South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, Riau, to support posts centered in West Java.

BMKG, according to him, has high hopes for cross-agency synergy with the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), TNI-Polri, the Ministry of Forestry (Kemenhut), and the Ministry of Environment (KLH), so that they can optimize weather modification and land fires as directed by President Prabowo Subianto.