The 2024 Presidential Election Must Be Encouraged To Produce More Than 2 Candidate Pairs, The Simulation Is Like This

Illustration of the Presidential Election (Photo: VOI)

JAKARTA - Political observer Pangi Syarwi Chaniago assesses that the country's potential presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election are very abundant if they reflect on the recent political dynamics. This means that it is not only two pairs of candidates who will appear in the five-year democratic party.

"We have no shortage of worthy figures and have the capacity to occupy the RI 1 seat," Pangi said in his statement to VOI, Sunday, May 30.

But realistically, he continued, the country's political system creates obstacles and barriers so that potential figures will wither before developing with the implementation of the 20 percent presidential threshold (PT).

The imposition of this presidential threshold, said Pangi, will kill potential talents and leave a game room that only revolves at the top party level as the controlling authority in awarding presidential 'tickets' to the desired figure through behind-the-scenes political lobbies.

"The public is only a spectator and forced to choose from a limited choice. The key word is the party ticket authority, the high electability of electoral concoctions seems useless," Pangi explained.

The Executive Director of the Voxpol Center for Research and Consulting explained that if you refer to the previous election, it is certain that the 'ticket authority' will only be monopolized by the top parties. So, the names that are milling about in the pollsters today will only be decorations in the media coverage and will disappear even before the "Party" begins.

"References are yes, but they are not necessarily decisive, like the comments from the PDIP Bappilu Chairman, Bambang Wuryanto, electability is not a benchmark in determining presidential candidates," he explained.

"I want to say this, electability is not the key to getting a presidential ticket. Please Anies Baswedan has high electability, please Ganjar Pranowo has high electability, please Ridwan Kamil has high electability but still the names that will come out of pocket, absolutely the party will decide," "continued Pangi.

According to the man who is familiarly called Ipang, there is a presidential threshold of 20 percent, sometimes electability and popularity do not have a linear correlation with the pencapresan process. Even if there is, but it is not an absolute factor, it can only be a bonus.

"I think there will also be a presidential candidate in shock, the public will be shocked and even possible that the names of candidates outside the cluster of regional heads, ministers and general chairmen of political parties," he said.

Therefore, Pangi is of the view that the presidential candidate simulation will only revolve around the same party, which can fulfill 20 percent of the PT. This is because Indonesia's electoral system has limited the space for potential presidential candidates to move.

"For example, PDIP, Gerindra and Golkar, the rest are a combination of mid-level parties. That is if there is no 'fat' coalition that undermines the middle board parties," he said.

"If a fat coalition occurs, we can already guess who the 2024 presidential candidate will be, who wants PDIP? Who wants Gerindra to support? Golkar wants to support it or wants to make its own alternative axis? The rest will just go with the flow," Pangi added.

If Indonesia wants something new and the 2024 election to be more dynamic and attractive, according to Pangi, there is no other way than the presidential threshold to be abolished.

Pangi also predicts that there will be three potential axes in the 2024 presidential election. First, the PDIP-Gerindra-PKB coalition with a simulation carries the Prabowo-Puan presidential candidate.

The second axis, the Nasdem-PKS-Democrat coalition with a simulation of the Anies-AHY presidential candidate pair. Then the third axis, the alternative coalition of the Golkar-PPP-PAN party with a pair simulation that allows names such as Airlangga, or Erick Tohir.

"Regardless of which party will propose to become a presidential candidate, including the names of Ganjar Pranowo, Sandiaga Uno and Ridwan Kamil," he said.

As for coalition species, there are two approaches. The first is the match all party approach, namely a personalistic, pragmatic and populist-based coalition. Second, the catch all party approach, namely an ideology-based platform coalition.

"I have noticed that our coalition so far has stronger DNA based on pragmatic power than ideological ones, apart from the fact that the ideological barriers across political parties are increasingly fluid. It means that the coalition is not based on ideology, it is more prominent on the basis of political pragmatism," he said

But for sure, Pangi reminded that the 2024 presidential election must continue to encourage more than two pairs of presidential candidates. From the data from the Voxpol Center survey, he said, 40.6 percent wanted the 2024 presidential election to be followed by more than 2 pairs of presidential/vice presidential candidates.

"There are as many alternative presidential candidates as possible, even though the presidential threshold is hit by 20 percent. Do not let the rematch of the bipolar presidential election repeat, as a result, public divisions are getting more and more open, because there are no alternative presidential candidates to break the waves of the two poles," said Pangi Syarwi Chaniago.