Ukraine's Changing Attitude on NATO Membership Won't Change Peace Talks

President Zelensky with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. (Twitter/@ZelenskyyUa)

JAKARTA - Ukraine's offer to abandon its intention to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is unlikely to significantly change the course of peace talks, two security experts said on Sunday.

During negotiations with a US envoy on a potential Ukrainian-Russian peace deal, President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday offered to abandon Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO.

President Zelensky said that security guarantees from the United States, Europe and other countries in exchange for joining NATO were a compromise from Ukraine.

"This in no way changes the situation," said Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Reuters reported (15/12).

"This is an attempt to look reasonable," he said.

"NATO membership for Ukraine has long been unrealistic," said Logan and Andrew Michta, a professor of strategic studies at the University of Florida.

Michta called Ukraine's admission to NATO "not a problem" at this time.

However, Logan said there are other ways for countries to try to ensure Ukraine's security.

US President Donald Trump, in response to President Zelensky's offer, would probably commit to the same things that the United States has done to support Ukraine, such as sending weapons and imposing sanctions on Russia, Logan said.

Not everyone turned down President Zelensky's offer.

Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Barack Obama administration and now head of consultant Global Situation Room, called the Ukraine concessions "significant and substantive."

"This is a way for Zelensky to compare Ukraine's willingness to make significant concessions for peace at a time when Moscow lacks significant concessions," Bruen said. "The question is, what did Zelensky get in return for his withdrawal of a fairly strong promise to the Ukrainian people?" he asked.

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Bruen speculated that President Trump may have promised to patrol the Ukrainian sky or respond to airspace violations by aircraft. The United States could also increase its supply of military aid if Russia launches a large-scale military attack, he said.

"Ukraine must be wary of Trump's promises, but they need more than words," he said.

"They need a course of action, some element, that will ensure Trump can't easily get away with this situation," he said.