PSG Survey: Jakarta Pilkada Possibly Lasts 2 Rounds

PSG Researcher Chief, Ahsan Ridhoi when the PSG survey was released. (Photo: Nailin In Saroh/VOI)

JAKARTA - Political Strategy Group (PSG) released the results of a poll by Jakarta residents regarding the election of governors and deputy governors in the 2024 Pilkada.

The survey shows that the Jakarta Pilkada is likely to last up to two rounds.

PSG Researcher Chief, Ahsan Ridhoi said, Jakarta is no longer the National Capital. However, according to him, based on the experience of the previous Jakarta Regional Head Election, the possibility of two rounds is still open.

"And there are three candidates, there is a possibility of two rounds. Because we also have experience in 2017, the three pairs of candidates are two rounds," said Ahsan when releasing the PSG survey in the Menteng area, Jakarta, Saturday, September 7.

In this survey, Ahsan explained, as many as 39 percent of respondents chose to support Anies Baswedan, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama alias Ahok 22 percent, and Ridwan Kamil 15 percent.

"This means that the citizens of Jakarta are basically tendered to want their former governors to return to lead them," he explained.

This, continued Ahsan, also correlates with the level of public satisfaction with Anies and Ahok. "So the memories are sweet, I think with Pak Anies, with Pak Ahok. So they are more (selected) back, while Ridwan Kamil is only limited to 15 percent," he said.

According to Ahsan, Ridwan Kamil loyal voters are actually very small when faced with Anies and Ahok. "

"The RK (Ridwan Kamil) fans are about 20 percent of the Jakarta population," said Ahsan.

However, Ahsan realized that only Ridwan Kamil, who officially registered as a candidate for governor at the Jakarta KPUD, was Ridwan Kamil. Therefore, he said, in the head to head Anies survey, the possibility of winning one round against Ridwan Kamil. Unlike when dealing with Ahok, the difference in votes between Ridwan Kamil and Ahok was not too far away.

On the other hand, there is 58 percent of respondents are likely to vote for Ridwan Kamil, but depending on his opponent. Of the 58 percent, only 19 percent said they were loyal to Ridwan Kamil and did not change support.

"Meanwhile, 42 percent of respondents ensure that they will not support Ridwan Kamil, whoever the opponent is. This means that there are many casting votes that can be explored," he said.

Ahsan assessed that Jakarta voters will experience disstressed or electoral psychological pressure because the top two candidates for governor are the most preferred and will be selected, Anies (39 percent) and Ahok (22 percent) have canceled competing in the elections on November 27.

"For this reason, the possibility of the Jakarta Pilkada occurring in a round is still very open," he said.

In addition, PSG also noted that Anies' potential vote shift to RK was 47 percent, less than Ahok's voters who shifted to RK, which was 58 percent after the official announcement of RK-Suswono, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno and Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardhana. Meanwhile, the combined voters of Anies and Ahok who have not made their choice are 40 percent.

"Based on this data, it is clear that Pramono-Rano cannot underestimate strategic steps related to narrative development, the solidity of the campaign team, and the seriousness of campaign logistics that touches the floating sound bases," concluded Ahsan.

PSG Chairman, Luki Hermawan added, Jakarta is a province that will always be special about the history, population, socio-political dynamics, and the metropolitan culture that will be of public concern.

"The Jakarta Pilkada event at the end of November will determine Jakarta's history as soon as it releases its status as a Special Capital Region," added Luki.

This survey was conducted in the period 6-15 August 2024 with sampling using the multistage random sampling method.

The number of samples in this survey is 1,540 people. Assuming a simple random sampling method, the sample size of 1,540 respondents had a margin of error (MoE) of about 0.7 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.